Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High:  52-56

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low:  36-40


Thursday - Sunny. High:  61-65 
Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 42-46

 Friday - Mostly clear, with high clouds.  High: 70-74

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Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 60's. As we move into the night hours, there will be partly cloudy sky's with lows in the upper 30's. Thursday will be sunny will highs in the lower 60's and partly cloudy in the night hours with lows in the mid 40's. Friday will be mostly clear with high clouds, highs in the lower 70's.
Forecasters: Heaven, Savoy
Issued:  9:20 a.m. ; October 16,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance currently indicates a non NAM blend, and as such, the 06Z GFS will be used, with supplementary temperature forecasting from the 03Z SREF. 

This forecast period is expected to be rather uneventful, with no chances for rain at all.  Wednesday will see low clouds in the area, as soundings indicate saturation near the surface.  These low clouds will be associated with wrap around moisture on the west side of the surface low based over the Great Lakes.  Temperatures are rather mild for October, but a warming trend is expected through the week, as WAA is expected to begin.  On Wednesday, CAA will be ongoing into the area between a surface high based in western Nebraska, and a surface high in the Great Lakes; however, this will break down late Wednesday night, and be replaced by WAA as the surface high tracks over Columbia.  The evening hours will see our low clouds start to dissipate, with some high clouds taking their place.  A warming trend will take place through the forecast period, as temperature is expected to increase, with mostly clear skies forecasted and WAA.  Clouds are expected to be minimal on Thursday, aiding the warming trend for the week.  Temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer Thursday than they were Friday.  High clouds are expected overnight Thursday, with soundings indicating saturation through most of the night, with some soundings indicating ~75mb of saturation between 200mb and 300mb.  Friday will see temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than the previous day once again, due to WAA ramping up overnight Thursday.  Minimal cloud cover is expected, however there does appear to be some moisture around 200-300mb that could lead to some sparse high clouds. 

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