Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Tuesday Night- Clear. Low 44-48

Wednesday - Increasing Clouds High: 68-72

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 58-62


Thursday- Mostly Cloudy Scattered Showers. High:73-77

Friday-  AM Clouds PM Sun.  High: 64-68

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A seasonal early-October pattern persists across mid-Missouri. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid-upper 40s. Tomorrow, expect increasing clouds out ahead of an approaching storm system, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning will bottom out near 60 underneath cloudy skies. For Thursday, southerly winds will bring in warmer, more humid air with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Rain is likely in the morning hours, with some breaks in the clouds possible by afternoon. Thursday night into Friday morning will see another chance for rain and even a few thunderstorms as a potent cold front approaches. Because of this cold front, high temperatures on Friday will actually occur around midnight. Behind the front, temperatures will rapidly drop into the 40s for our Friday morning, with clearing skies likely during the day on Friday.
Forecasters: Lujan, Vanderpo0l, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 8,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This afternoon the WPC recommends a blend of the 08Z/12Z ECMWF and 08
Z/12Z GFS is utilized during this forecast, we are using the 12Z GFS.  The SREF and GEFS to aid with temperatures and potential precipitation towards the end of the forecast period.

The main concern for this forecast is sky condition, but also watching a potentially strong low pressure system that will be affecting the forecast later in the week.

This afternoon the forecast area is still under the influence of high pressure, the high center is located over the eastern Illinois boarder.  This afternoon turned ot to be an average fall-like day with the temperature reaching 71 degrees with clear skies and a light breeze out of the south/southwest at about 5kts. Tonight conditions remain stable, clear conditions but saturation in the upper levels of the column do suggest high clouds moving in early tomorrow morning and forming into more mid-level clouds as the day progresses.  A lobe of circulation in the 500mb level pass over and through the area tomorrow afternoon but with the lack of upper level support and any moisture to speak of, rain chances tomorrow look to be very slim, so a partly cloudy day with peaks of sunshine for tomorrow.  12Z GFS forecast soundings do suggest a veering wind profile tomorrow as well, WAA is continuing to be funneled in by southerly winds as a result of being on the backside of the latest high pressure system to pass through the area.  Wednesday night the LLJ begins to kick up, 850mb winds range from about 25-30kts overnight, with WAA still being introduced in the column overnight and a cloudy sky, temperatures are expected to only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 

A strong low pressure system remains off to the forecast area's west near the central Kansas/Nebraska boarder during the morning on Thursday.  The area will continue to be under the influence of a weak warm front during the day Thursday with cloudy skies Thursday.  A windy day is expected for Thursday as the jet will be practically overhead during the day, the LLJ winds are expected to range from 35-40kts at times, surface winds are expected to be sustained at 15-20mph and gust to upwards of 35mph at times as winds are expected to mix down to the surface. Forecast soundings suggest periods of rain in the morning hours on Thursday, greatest chance looks to be mid morning but scattered chances of showers and even a rumble of thunder is possible during the afternoon Thursday as CAPE values could reach upwards of 850 J/kg suggesting instability during the afternoon hours.  A strong cold front expected to pass through the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning.  Due to the timing of the cold frontal passage the  high temperature for the day Friday looks to be around midnight Friday morning and temperatures continue to decrease during the day as well as clearing skies a a Continental high pressure system from Canada sinks into the central region of the CONUS. 

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