Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Cloudy skies, possible afternoon showers: High 64-68


Tuesday Night - Mostly Cloudy skies: Low 38-42

 Wednesday - AM Clouds, PM Sun: High 52-56

 Wednesday Night - Mostly Clear: Low 34-38


 Thursday - Sunny Skies: High 61-65

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Today will be a breezy, seasonal day with high temps in the mid to high 60s. It will be cloudy most of the day as a cold front moves into the area this afternoon. The possibility for rain is very slim due to the lack of moisture. Tomorrow morning it will still be cloudy because the clouds on the back-side of the low pressure won't have made it's way out of the area yet. The high for Wednesday will be much cooler in the low to mid 50s. Then in the afternoon and evening we will be under the influence of a high pressure system to our west which will help clear the skies. Thursday we will then see temps begin to warm back up to seasonal averages with a high in the low to mid 60s.
Forecasters: Steward, Munley, Farr, Gallahan
Issued:  10:00a.m. ; October 15,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
According to the WPC, they are recommending a general model blend. We chose to use the NAM and GFS. We decided to use the NAM for today into tomorrow, and the GFS for Thursday.

The main topic of discussion for this forecast period is when the cold front will come through the area, and whether or not we will get any rain associated with the cold front. Looking at GFS 250-hPa heights and winds, as of right now, we appear to be in more of a zonal flow with upper-level and mid-level winds going in an west to east direction. However, as we head into the afternoon, GFS 500-hPa heights and vorticity depict a shortwave making it's way into the region associated with a low pressure system over northwest Wisconsin. That low will shift our winds out of the northwest which will bring in our colder air. When looking at the timing of this frontal passage, the models are in good agreement of the frontal passage occurring mid to late afternoon around 4:00pm today. This appears to be a relatively dry cold front. This is because the jet-max at 250mb will be to our southeast, so there won't be much upper level support as the left entrance region which induces convergence will be off to our southeast as well. PWAT values also don't look too impressive either at less that 1 inch. This is because the passage of the front will push any gulf moisture off to the southeast before it can make its way here. Lastly, when looking at a sounding for this afternoon, there is moisture at the surface, however, there is a large inversion just below 850mb, so there won't be much room for vertical development as we will be capped off. So thinking any cloud cover will be more strati-form than anything else. Wednesday looks much cooler temperature wise after the passage of the cold front. However, there will be some lingering clouds Wednesday morning due to the clouds on the back-side of the low not making their way out of the region yet. After that however, the flow will become more zonal for Wednesday night into Thursday as the skies will clear as temperatures will become more seasonal.

No comments:

Post a Comment