Thursday, October 17, 2019

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 48-52


Friday- Clear. High: 72-75 

 Friday Night - Mostly sunny, with high clouds.  Low: 52-55


Saturday- Partly Cloudy. Highs: 71-74


Sunday - Cloudy with rain showers.  High: 75-78

Thanks to for the icons!

Thursday and Friday will be quiet high pressure days with temperatures higher than what is seasonal. Saturaday clouds will move over Columbia as a cold front beings to influence the region. Sunday there will be rain showers, with the cold front and cloud cover will begin to dissapate after the weekend. 
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued: 5:00pm; October 17th, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Currently, the 300mb chart is showing that we are in a Meridonal pattern, with a jet max entering the base of the trough upstream of the forecast area. As the jet max enters the base of the trough, the trough will deepen and as the ridge leaves the trough the ridge will strengthen. This, in turn, translates to the ridge dominating Columbia for this evening and tomorrow.

Currently, the SREF and HREF are showing an LLJ moving into Missouri on Friday. However, this is closer to KMCI than KCOU. The current run is also showing a front moving into the area on late Saturday evening, early Sunday morning. With this precipitable water is showing 0.75-1.00 inches, so not a lot of water to work with. LI is currently showing the greatest probability of thunderstorm development, as does CAPE, at 18z Sunday. This, in turn, does not line up with the front moving through the area at 12Z Sunday morning. With this in mind, if there is more than a wind shift it will most likely be showers over Columbia Sunday morning.

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