Monday, October 7, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 44-48


Tuesday - Clear. High: 69-73

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 46-50


Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 70-74
Thursday -  Cloudy with rain in the afternoon.  High: 78-82

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It will be clear Monday night with cooler temperatures from 44 - 48 degrees. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be clear as well with a high between 69 - 73 and a low between 46 - 50 degrees. Clouds will start to move in Wednesday resulting in a partly cloudy sky with a high of 70-74; and Thursday it will be cloudy with rain moving in during the afternoon and a high of 78-82.
Forecasters: Hatch, Travis, Munley, Heaven
Issued:  4:30 p.m. ; October 7,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current WPC guidance, a general model blend is preferred, with a blend of the SREF and the GFS used, with the SREF used primarily for temperature forecasting. 

Monday night will continue to see clear skies, along with fairly low temperatures during the night.  A surface high will track over Columbia late tonight, with WAA following closely behind.  This WAA will start out rather weak, but will exist throughout the week.  This WAA will strengthen later on in the week, between a surface low to our west and the surface high to our east.  A warming trend is expected to begin on Tuesday, going through the entire forecast period.  This trend will start off fairly weak with only about a degree per day of warming expected, however will really start to kick in on Thursday, where a rather significant warming is expected.  This warming trend will carry on into the night, with warmer temps expected through at least Tuesday night.  Wednesday will see the return of clouds to Columbia, with soundings indicating these clouds starting very high up, and eventually coming down through around 600mb by late Wednesday.  Rain is in the forecast for the day Thursday, with soundings indicating this would start in the afternoon.  This precipitation will be out ahead of an approaching cold front.  There is the possibility for some rumbles of thunder, but not much beyond that is expected, intensity wise.  Temperatures are expected to really ramp up during the day Thursday, as the surface low and cold front will be close to the west, increasing our 850mb jet to about 40 knots.  WAA will be at its strongest at this point.  Soundings from the day on Thursday currently indicate minimal convection, just stratiform rain.

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