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The high pressure that has dominated our weather pattern which has brought us sunny skies and seasonal temperatures the past couple days will continue today into tonight with clear skies, low humidity and seasonal temperatures. However, clouds will begin to move into the area Wednesday. Temperatures will remain seasonal, but the cloud cover will hinder our high temperatures by a few degrees. However, even though there is cloud cover, it doesn't appear we will get any rain from those clouds. The clouds do remain in place Wednesday night will will moderate our low temperatures 6-8 degrees warmer than Tuesday night. Cloudiness continues Thursday with high temperatures a touch warmer than Wednesday. Thursday will also bring an increase in humidity with possible showers Thursday.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued: 10:00 a.m. ; October 8, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This mornings forecast 06Z GFS is being used along with SREF and GEFS.
This morning clear skies and 47F. RAP soundings this morning show a southerly wind at the surface but aloft northerly winds are present ushering in drier air and is present as the column is dry.
Tuesday looks to be a carbon copy of Monday's forecast, temperatures in the low 70s for a high and sunny skies. High pressure giving us this pleasant fall weather is located currently centered over southeastern MO. Winds at the surface are out of the south today but aloft are from the west/northwest direction, ushering in dry air and will continue through the overnight hours. Wednesday dry conditions continue around the forecast area with yet another seasonal day in the forecast area. GFS forecast soundings do indicate a veering of wind profile during the day Wednesday suggesting WAA dominating throughout the day on Wednesday. With the WAA, high level clouds begin to fill in and even mid level clouds are expected to fill into the area during afternoon hours Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon a short wave trough is expected to pass through the area, rain is possible during the early evening hours Wednesday night but a big dry layer between 700mb and the surface in forecast soundings is concerning. Rain is in the forecast for the day Thursday, with soundings indicating this would start in the afternoon. This precipitation will be out ahead of an approaching cold front. GFS forecast soundings indicate strong WAA Thursday as we expect to touch the mid 70s for a high. 850mb winds Thursday look to be as fast as 25-30kts a times, mixing down to the surface indicating a breezy day. The breezy conditions are ahead of a cold front that is associated with a somewhat strong low pressure system. As of now rain is expected during morning and during the day Thursday beginning around 12Z. The best chances for rain is early Thursday morning, scattered showers possible during the day and a greater chance for heavier rain overnight Thursday, no severe weather is expected with this system. .