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A cold front passed through the region this weekend bringing cloud cover and rain, but that continues to move out of the Midwest. High pressure is set to dominate this forecast period allowing for clear skies and seasonal temperatures in Mid-Missouri. This will also help move the moisture and cloud cover associated with the cold front away from us. Cloud cover returns Wednesday afternoon preceding another cold front that looks to bring rain and cooler temperatures for the latter part of the week.
Forecasters: Lieberman, Clemons, Munley
Issued: 9:30 a.m. ; October 7, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
For this forecast a general model blend is preffered by the WPC, the use of the SREF was also utilized.
Clear conditions with a temperature of 46 degrees an a light breeze. A cold front moved through the forecast area over the weekend is currently affecting portions of the northeast and southeastern parts of the CONUS. North westerly flow aloft is set in over the area bringing us dry and cooler air as we are on the eastern side of a high pressure system. With being under the influence of high pressure today with no moisture to speak of in the column and winds in the column are forecasted to move to a predominate northerly direction as the day goes on, per the 06Z GFS, a quiet fall day is in store for the area. The previously mentioned high is expected to form over southern Kansas today and is expected to move to the northeast and pass over the area overnight tonight. As high pressure moves off to our north and east tonight and into tomorrow winds are expected to shift to the more southerly direction for Tuesday.
Tuesday brings yet again more sun and another nice day in the forecast. GFS and NAM forecast soundings both suggest a stable atmosphere during the day Tuesday and even overnight Tuesday night. Upper level winds Tuesday still remain out of the west to northwesterly direction and through the night Tuesday night to continue the pleasant weather in the forecast area. Wednesday NAM and GFS forecast soundings to indicate a sunny start to the day but increasing of high level and even mid level clouds as the day progresses. Clouds increase ahead of a short wave that will be moving through the area during the afternoon hours Wednesday. 500mb vorticity does show this slight disturbance of circulation with mid level omega values at about 5 microbars per second but the column does saturate from 200mb-500mb but dry layers between 500mb and 700mb the from 700mb to the surface is troublesome so the chance of rain at this time for Wednesday afternoon is a slight chance at that.