Tuesday, October 22, 2019


Tuesday - Sunny Skies. High: 55-59

Tuesday Night -  Mostly Clear. Low: 43-47

Wednesday - AM Sun/Increasing PM Clouds. High: 64-68


Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45

Thursday - Possible Showers. High: 46-50

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Today will remain sunny with breezy conditions and temperatures below seasonal average. Skies will remain clear overnight as a warm front will make its way into the area which will shift our winds out of the SW. Those SW winds will warm out temperatures to more seasonal levels. Clouds will begin to make their way into the area Wednesday night as a cold front will shift our winds out of the NW. There is a possibility of rain on Thursday once the cold front passes and temperatures will drop to well below seasonal averages.
Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Farr
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 22,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current model guidance a general model blend has been used to make this forecast.  Current temps are in the mid 40s for Mid-Missouri. The skies are clear and the air is fairly dry.

Today dry condition will continue and so will the breeze.  The forecast area is still under the influence of a 40kt low level jet due associated with a strong low pressure system still to our northeast,  With the LLJ still at about 40-50kts at times today, winds at the surface will be around 15-20mph sustained gusting to 30mph at times. Winds do begin to die down as the sun begins to set tonight. Cloud conver is expected tomorrow in the form of a mid-level clouds according to GFS and NAM forecast soundings as a we expect to be under the warm sector.  Temperatures warm fairly quickly as WAA is introduced from the warm front off to the north  Wednesday night into Thursday a cold front is expected to move through the forecast area. Models are in disagreement on how far south the cold front does go and how fast it moves through the area as well,  NAM is about three hours faster than the GFS so timing is an issue, currently anticipating FROPA to be around midnight Thursday.  As the cold front passes there will be some precipitation ahead of the front but post front rain is expected with a potential upper level disturbance moving along the gradient of the cold front.  NAM and GFS do differ of the strength of the upper level disturbance so depending on how strong this disturbance is will depend on how much rain does fall during the day Thursday. 

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