Monday, October 28, 2019


Monday Night - Rain, otherwise cloudy. Low: 34-38

Tuesday - Cloudy. High: 44-48

Tuesday Night - Rain. Cloudy. Low: 38-42  

Wednesday - Rain. Cloudy. High: 36-40

Thursday - Cloudy in the morning, with clouds clearing out. High: 38-42

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We will start to see an increase in cloudiness and rain chances as the night progresses. Tuesday, the clouds will remain in the area with a high in the upper 40's. Overnight Tuesday, we will continue to see intermittent rain continuing into Wednesday. We will see cloudy skies later in the evening with a high in the upper 30's and the clouds clearing out as we head into Thursday with a high in the lower 40's.
Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00 pm; October 28,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

This forecast primarily utilized the 12Z GFS, however the 12Z NAM was utilized as well. The WPC indicates poor resolution of the trough over the central CONUS. Given the analysis, there is verified differences between the GFS and NAM as the location of the 500 hPa low center differs significantly on each run.

Soundings indicate that cloud cover will persist overnight and into tomorrow. Rain is also expected starting at 03Z as deep saturation occurs up to around 600mb. This rainfall is not expected to be convective as the CAPE and Omega values are quite low.

Clouds are expected to remain in the area all day as multiple levels are saturated. Rain is expected to begin again around 09Z. Again, there is no convection expected with this rainfall. The GFS is suggesting sleet overnight Tuesday, however the GFS is, unsurprisingly, running cold. The NAM and SHREF also have significantly warmer temperatures and there is no indication of winter precipitation Tuesday night.

Wednesday, we will see Columbia on the northwest to west side of the surface low. Our position relative to the low will set the area up for rain. 700mb RH and Omega values are well overlaid, indicating precipitation.Future shifts will need to be aware of winter precipitation potential Wednesday night.

Soundings indicate that clouds will remain in the area during the morning hours, however will be clearing out as the day progresses.

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