Thursday, October 17, 2019

 Thursday - Sunny. High:  64-68

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 44-48

 Friday - Mostly sunny, with high clouds.  High: 66-70


Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 45-49


 Saturday - Cloudy with rain.  High: 60-64

Thanks to for the icons!

Today and tomorrow are going to be kind of slow weather wise. We have a high pressure system sitting over central Missouri. That is the reason we will be experiencing mostly sunny skies with southwest winds. Going into Saturday, our next system moves in causing winds to shift from southwest to northwest. This system will give us the possibility of showers during Saturday.
Forecasters: Munley, Pauley, Gallahan
Issued: 10:00am; October 17th, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The WPC preferred model blend for this forecast period.

The main question for today is when will the winds make their directional shift? When looking at the winds at all the different levels, the models are in good agreement that the wind direction will begin to shift from the northwest to out of the west around 1:00am tomorrow morning. The winds will continue to make a directional shift and come out of the southwest between 10:00am and 1:00pm tomorrow. This indicates a veering winds which will bring WAA to the area. This will lead to temperatures Friday to be a little above seasonal average. This wind shift is also indicative of us being under a ridge of high pressure that is situated over the central CONUS. Things change for us Saturday as winds will begin to shift out of the NW around 10:00am Saturday. This will be a backing wind profile which will bring us CAA. This wind shift will also bring us a possibility of rain late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. This rainfall does not look very impressive however since we have PWAT values around 1 inch, so there won't be much moisture to work with. Vertical velocity also doesn't look all that impressive either, so there won't be much rising motion either. Lastly we lack any CAPE, so there won't be much convection associated with this rain either, so precipitation-wise we are looking at a possibility of scattered showers starting around 9am  and lasting until around 3pm. These showers however do not look to be continuous, but more off and on during this time period. 

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