Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Clouds in the evening, clearing out at night. 
Low:  36-40

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High:  52-56

Wednesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low:  34-38


Thursday - Sunny. High:  61-65 

Friday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 68-72

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Tonight, expect clouds clearing around midnight with a low in the upper 30's low 40's. Wednesday expect clouds forming in the morning becoming mostly cloudy for the rest of the day with a high in the mid 50's. Wednesday night, expect skies to clear with a low in the upper 30's. Thursday expect clear skies with a high around the low to mid 60's. Friday clouds will move in causing partly cloudy skies with a high in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
Forecasters: Munley, Heaven, Lujan, Vanderpool
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 15,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC model diagnostic discussion recommends a general model blend through 12z October 17, with a non-NAM blend (weighted towards the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS) afterwards. Thus, we will rely on 12z GFS for overall synoptic analysis, with 12z GEFS and 15z SREF input for temperature.

Overall, meridional flow remains in place across the CONUS, with a pronounced 500mb trough extending from Minnesota southwestward into the four-corners region. 500mb ridge axis exists from California up through Idaho. A prominent jet streak at the 500mb level runs from northern TX through the Chesapeake Bay area.

The primary topic of discussion (locally, that is) is a cold front which passed through Columbia around 1PM this afternoon. The front, associated with a vertically-stacked low centered over Wisconsin, has been responsible for keeping us in cloud cover much of today, as well as generating scattered showers in the region. This front will continue to push south and east through the remainder of the day, leaving cooler and drier conditions in its wake.

Tonight, CAA and clearing skies will allow temperatures to cool down into the upper 30s. Model soundings do not indicate the formation of an inversion, thus fog is unlikely to be an issue. Wrap-around moisture on the backside of the departing low at the 850mb level should provide for increasing low clouds early tomorrow morning. This low-level moisture will stick around through much of Wednesday, keeping Columbia and the surrounding areas under clouds. As a result, we have trended temperatures down a few degrees, with continued CAA beneath mostly-cloudy skies. Would not be surprised to see highs struggle to hit 50, but the most likely range for Wed. afternoon highs currently looks to be 52-56 degrees.

On Thursday, southerly flow at the surface returns, though we will still be on the eastern side of an approaching ridge axis as meridional flow persists across the CONUS. Temperatures beneath sunny skies will moderate back into the low 60s -- seasonal for this time of year. In fact, the main limiting factor for afternoon highs Thursday will be a lack of pronounced WAA, as backing still remains in place above 850mb. We may see a few high clouds late in the day Thursday and into early Friday morning, though these should not have a significant impact on temperatures.

For Friday, WAA kicks in on the west side of the ridge axis. We are looking for highs to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s under mostly-sunny skies. WAA will be supported by gusty surface winds (possibly on the order of 15-20 knots). 500mb trough will also dig into the upper Rockies, a precursor to the formation of another strong storm system in the plains by late weekend/early next week.

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