Thursday, October 3, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Thursday Night - Skies become clear overnight. Low: 42-46

Friday- Clear skies. High: 62-66
Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 56-60


Saturday - Clouds increase and rain in the afternoon. High: 68-72

Sunday - Clear skies. High: 66-70

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Tonight we will see cloud decks move out of the area, with a low temperature in the mid 40's. On Friday there will be clear skies as dry air moves in behind the front, with a high in the mid 60's. On Saturday afternoon a front will trek through mid Missouri being with it associated rain. Highs will be between 68-72. Sunday will bring clear skies, following the front and a high of 66-70.
Forecasters: Owens, Lead Forecaster: Bongard
Issued:  5:00 9.m. ; October 3,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 Following FROPA there will be dry air advection (DAA) behind the front. With a decreasing pressure, gradient winds will be light and variable. With these conditions, clear skies and light winds will persist through Friday. Over the course of Friday evening, there will be a radiation inversion that sets up. Combined with RH values in the mid-80s-90s and light winds there is the possibility of mist development. This could be inhibited by the Columbia Heat Island. 

On Saturday the low pressure, currently forming over the US/Canada border, will move over the region. Currently this low has yet to deepen to the 850-925mb level yet, lacks jet support, and has not currently produced any significant weather. In addition to this, the SREF is not showing high CAPE values, has PVA moving out of the base of the trough and has 5-10% probabilities of 3-hr thunderstorms. While there is still moisture associated with the low, it will continue to remain weak and only produce rain.   

Following FROPA Saturday afternoon DAA will begin to dominate the area again. While temperatures will still be lowered, there will not be enough moisture remaining to cause cloud cover. 

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