Wednesday, October 16, 2019

  Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low:  36-40


Thursday - Sunny. High:  61-65 
Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 42-46

 Friday - Mostly sunny, with high clouds.  High: 70-74 
Saturday - Cloudy with rain.  High: 67-71

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Tonight, there will be partly cloudy skies with the low in the upper 30s. Thursday will be sunny with the high in the lower 60s; partly cloudy in the night hours with the low in the lower to middle 40s. Friday will be mostly sunny with high clouds, highs in the lower 70s. On Saturday, we will see cloudy skies with rain, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Forecasters: Heaven, Steward, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 16,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC recommends general model blend, thus we used GFS 12Z and 15Z SREF for supplemental temperature forecasting.

Overall, the forecast up until Saturday is generally uneventful
. Currently, a negatively tilted, vertically stacked low located over the Great Lakes is bringing northwesterly flow to the area. The early part of the forecast, up until early morning Thursday, will be dictated by northwesterly flow at all levels. Then a shift to southwesterly flow will begin at the surface with winds shifting throughout the column by the end of the day. Due to the shift of winds at the surface, WAA will begin early Thursday. This southwesterly flow and WAA sets up a warming trend until Saturday.  12Z GFS soundings show saturation between 200-300 mb Thursday night indicating the presence of high clouds. Some of this saturation will remain into the day on Friday; however, given its relatively shallow layer, cloudiness will be fairly minimal. Cold frontal passage will occur early Saturday. Rain in the morning will be associated with this front. No storms are expected.

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