Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 43-47   
Thursday - Overcast with rain. High: 46-50
Thursday Night - Overcast with rain. Low: 38-42
Friday - Cloudy. High: 50-54
Saturday - Cloudy with rain. High: 51-55

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Tonight, mostly cloudy skies are expected with a low temperature in the mid 40s. A cold front is expected to pass over Columbia late Wednesday into early Thursday.  Tomorrow, overcast skies with rain will bring a cooler high temperature in the upper 50s. This rain will be behind the cold front which passed early in the morning.  Thursday night, it will also be overcast with rain, and the low will be in the lower 40s and upper 30s. Friday, skies will remain cloudy and the high temperature will reach the lower 50s. Cloudiness will continue into Saturday, and rain will resume as well. Rain will be located on the northwest corner of a low passing from the south to the east.  The high will be in the low to mid 50s.
Forecasters: Abruzzo, Heaven
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 23,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC is preferring general model blend, so we used the GFS model and SREF plumes for temperature forecasting.

Temperatures were quite high this afternoon, mainly due to strong WAA and minimal cloud cover. Tonight, cold frontal passage will begin at approximately midnight, setting the area up for rain to begin early Thursday. The rain will be behind the cold front, as shown by model soundings. The soundings show saturation throughout most of the column. Cloudiness and weak CAA will bring the high temperature down 20 degrees. Rain is expected to continue through Thursday night into early Friday morning. Friday, a surface low will move over Louisiana. This surface low will be stacked to the northwest, indicating rapid intensification over the next couple days. Meanwhile, cloudy skies have the possibility to clear Friday afternoon, as model soundings are showing an opening between dew point and temperature. If skies do clear, high temperatures will rise beyond what is forecast. However, the confidence in this situation occurring is low, as moisture in the soundings is high for periods before and after. Saturday, the surface low will move towards the Louisiana-Arkansas border while continuing to be stacked to the northwest. Its influence will begin for the area as well. Given the position of the low, we are expected to be on the north side, indicating that we are in the head of the comma. Soundings indicate that rain is likely Saturday.

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