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Wednesday will see the last day for at least a few days of incredibly high temperatures this fall. Temperatures will increase ahead of a looming cold front based in northeast Missouri. This cold front will not pass until around midnight Wednesday, at which point it will storm. Some of these storms could be strong, with the main threat being wind. Thursday will finally see us cooling down to near normal temperatures for both the high and low values. Temperatures on Friday will cool again slightly, with the high expected in the mid 60s.
Forecasters: Heaven, Savoy
Issued: 9:30 a.m. ; October 2, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current WPC analysis, 06Z GFS will be the primary model used, with 03Z SREF used as a supplement.
Wednesday will see a cold front looming off to the northwest for most of the day, however this cold front will not pass us until late tonight. Temperatures on Wednesday are thus expected to still max out at a very high for October mid 80s. A saddle point has set up along the cold front in northwest Missouri, based off two surface lows; one near the great lakes, and one over the panhandle of Oklahoma. The low over Oklahoma will need to traverse the front before the front will be able to pass over us. Rain is expected with the cold front, with a linear storm mode expected. Soundings indicate DCAPE values of around 800 from the GFS, which indicates a marginal wind threat. After frontal passage temperatures will begin to lower, however CAA will not begin in earnest until Thursday morning. This CAA seems to have been breaking down over the past few runs, and thus, temperatures have been increased on Thursday again. Soundings indicate clouds through the rest of the forecast period, with the 500-700mb layer having points of saturation in all time steps beyond the storms Wednesday. Thursday night will see our lowest temperatures for the week so far, with CAA continuing through that night. CAA will break down around midnight Thursday night, with lines of thickness becoming parallel to MSLP on the south side of a strong surface high based in northern Wisconsin. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures than those on Thursday, given that there is no WAA at all, along with cloud cover most of the day.