Monday: Sunny. High: 78
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 60
Tuesday: Scattered Storms. Some may be severe. High: 81
Tuesday Night: Scattered storms. Some may be severe. Low: 50
Wednesday: Partly cloudy High: 56
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Discussion:
Time to be weather aware! Chances for severe weather returns tomorrow so have your phone on for alerts and establish a severe weather plan.
-Herion
Forecasters: Jones, Herion
Date Issued: 04/03/2023 10:00AM CDT
This forecast was put together using the GFS due to its handling of moisture placement and frontal boundaries. The main focus of the forecast will be the potential for severe storms Tuesday afternoon with all potential hazards on the table (Damaging winds, Hail, and tornadoes).
Today the CWA is in a largely zonal flow with both the polar and sub-tropical jet streaks to the north and south. A longwave trough is beginning to deepen to the west over Nevada and California. This will trough will continue to deepen throughout the forecast period. Through the mid-levels zonal flow remains the focus for the pleasant weather we are having. At the 850mb moisture begins to build in around 15:00Z and increases through the evening as a LPS moves towards the area. The passage of a warm front bring southern winds driving warm air and moisture into the area. Temperatures today are expected to reach a high of 78 with a low this evening of 60.
Tuesday brings the trough closer to the region as it deepens and begins to tilt negatively bringing the jet streak with it. The mid-levels show some slight bands of vorticity moving over the area at 12:00Z, as the mid-level trough begins to deepen and push to the north of the CWA. GFS soundings show high values of surface cape during the afternoon and into the evening, veering winds, and large forcing are the indicators for possible severe weather (damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes) mentioned in the beginning of the discussion. The highest chance for potential severe weather will be during the late afternoon and into evening. There is a large amount of capping that could limit the production of large supercells forming. Tuesday brings a lot of WAA from the moisture being driven up due to the southern winds. At the least expect scattered storms with rain. The high is expected to be 81 with a low of 50.
Wednesday brings a cold front at the 850mb level passing through the CWA around 09:00Z. The passing of the cold front brings cooler air into the area and potential for some showers but mostly a cloudy and calm day. Due to the cold front temperatures will stay cooler with a high of 56.
- Jones
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