Monday: Cloudy. High: 71
Monday Night: Partly Coudy. Low: 51
Tuesday: Mostly clear. High: 77
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 80
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Discussion:
Thanks to rex blocking, a HPS and southerly flow the CWA will be seeing pleasant weather for the forecast period. Skies will remain sunny with some clouds and temperatures will be above average with highs in the 70s and up to 80 on Wednesday.- Jones
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones
Date Issued: 4/10/2023 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Both the GFS and NAM were near identical during the initial conditions. The surface temperatures were a couple of degrees off from those at Sanborn. The models also agreed on the placement of the high pressure system over the Carolinas and a weak low over Kansas and Nebraska. Since there was limited differences between the two, we chose to use the GFS because of its grasp of future low temperatures.
For Monday, an upper level trough will move just to the southwest of us. It is positively tilted and should not be a concern for active weather. The system associated with this trough will affect the Gulf shore states and stay down there for the extent of our forecast period. At the 500 MB level, moisture levels are high but we doubt there will be precipitation associated with it. Higher level cloud coverage is expected. The mid-levels are drier than the upper levels and there is virtually no lift needed to generate any rain with this system. Near the surface, return flow from last night's high pressure system will fuel lower level cloud development through the afternoon. Into the evening, a much stronger high pressure system begins to sit over the mid-Mississippi river valley region. Southerly flow will help advect warmer air into the region over the course of the next few days. Monday high temperatures will rise into the low 70s which is above the average temperature (avg High: 64). The low will drop into the mid to lower 50s.
Tuesday will be very similar to today. The upper level ridging intensifies as rex blocking continues. The low in the Gulf will intensify but the strength of the high will prevent it from moving up into the Midwest. The southerly flow will continue as the high pressure advects warmer air into Missouri. The upper levels are dry but there we could see a few lower level clouds pass through. Highs on Tuesday will be dependent on how much cloud coverage we see. If the sky stays clear, temperatures could easily reach the upper 70s which is well above the average temperature (avg High: 65). A clear sky overnight will drop temperatures into the lower 50s.
Rex blocking continues into Wednesday as well. All levels are nearly dry as we will still be under the impact of the high pressure system over the mid-west. Southerly flow continues as the system continues to advect warm air into mid-Missouri. Cloud coverage will be limited due to how dry the atmosphere will be. Because of this, we could see temperatures climb north of 80 due to daytime heating and lack of clouds.
Future forecasters should continue to monitor the path of the gulf coast cut off low. Model runs show Missouri being on the wraparound precipitation side of the system.
- Herion
For Monday, an upper level trough will move just to the southwest of us. It is positively tilted and should not be a concern for active weather. The system associated with this trough will affect the Gulf shore states and stay down there for the extent of our forecast period. At the 500 MB level, moisture levels are high but we doubt there will be precipitation associated with it. Higher level cloud coverage is expected. The mid-levels are drier than the upper levels and there is virtually no lift needed to generate any rain with this system. Near the surface, return flow from last night's high pressure system will fuel lower level cloud development through the afternoon. Into the evening, a much stronger high pressure system begins to sit over the mid-Mississippi river valley region. Southerly flow will help advect warmer air into the region over the course of the next few days. Monday high temperatures will rise into the low 70s which is above the average temperature (avg High: 64). The low will drop into the mid to lower 50s.
Tuesday will be very similar to today. The upper level ridging intensifies as rex blocking continues. The low in the Gulf will intensify but the strength of the high will prevent it from moving up into the Midwest. The southerly flow will continue as the high pressure advects warmer air into Missouri. The upper levels are dry but there we could see a few lower level clouds pass through. Highs on Tuesday will be dependent on how much cloud coverage we see. If the sky stays clear, temperatures could easily reach the upper 70s which is well above the average temperature (avg High: 65). A clear sky overnight will drop temperatures into the lower 50s.
Rex blocking continues into Wednesday as well. All levels are nearly dry as we will still be under the impact of the high pressure system over the mid-west. Southerly flow continues as the system continues to advect warm air into mid-Missouri. Cloud coverage will be limited due to how dry the atmosphere will be. Because of this, we could see temperatures climb north of 80 due to daytime heating and lack of clouds.
Future forecasters should continue to monitor the path of the gulf coast cut off low. Model runs show Missouri being on the wraparound precipitation side of the system.
- Herion
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