Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 51
Saturday: Partly Cloudy, chance of a trace amount of rain in the morning. High: 66
Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 43
Sunday: Decreasing Clouds. High: 58
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 41
====================================================================
Discussion:
A cold front is set to slide over our area tonight into Saturday morning, cooling temperatures down and bringing a slight chance for light rain early Saturday morning. The rest of the weekend looks to be clear with the Sunday high set in the upper 50s.
-Sausen
=================================================================
Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, McGuire
Date Issued: 4/28/2023 4:20PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
A deepening upper level trough is currently centered over the Plains with a positive tilt, with general high pressure in the low levels over the Rockies. Closer to the surface the low becomes cutoff over the OH River valley, with a smaller lobe centered over Texas. WPC analysis places a large stationary front between the Texas Panhandle all the way up into Wisconsin, with light rain and fog reported along most of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, the forecast area remains under the influence of a weak surface ridge.
Our “problem of the day” for this weekend appears to be chances for rain Saturday morning and evening. We went with the GFS, as the NAM’s surface temperatures were significantly (~10degF) warmer than observations were this morning.
The lobe of low pressure over Texas looks to become cut off overnight tonight, and travel due east all the way into Saturday night, becoming absorbed in its’ parent low offshore Sunday night, keeping its’ influence on the forecast area limited at best. The main feature will be a weak cold front moving through the area Saturday morning. Surface dewpoints of 50 degrees, weak but present 700mb vertical velocity values and weak PVA leads me to believe that this front will produce some weaker precipitation. Surface temps in the 50’s should negate any chance for wintry precip, but soundings show a relatively saturated troposphere overall, which should give way to widespread and thick cloud cover tonight into Saturday morning. CAPE values are measly in all measures, and the lid strength index indicates a moderate cap on the forecast area, suggesting slim to zero chance of anything convective. As such, we’ve added trace amounts to the precipitation forecast for Saturday morning. A second shortwave is noted in the evening, though with even less moisture to work with. Similar story to the first wave, this one should also bring a period of thick cloud cover and perhaps some light precip Saturday evening, clearing out by midnight.
By Sunday morning, the main speed max of the main low centered over the Great Lakes should move south, placing the backside of the trough over the forecast area. Some of these winds should mix to the surface, and as such gusty winds seem likely overnight Sunday. Otherwise, large scale ridging over the Rockies should transfer into the Plains, leaving us in a col point between the two systems ensuring peaceful weather.
A deepening upper level trough is currently centered over the Plains with a positive tilt, with general high pressure in the low levels over the Rockies. Closer to the surface the low becomes cutoff over the OH River valley, with a smaller lobe centered over Texas. WPC analysis places a large stationary front between the Texas Panhandle all the way up into Wisconsin, with light rain and fog reported along most of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, the forecast area remains under the influence of a weak surface ridge.
Our “problem of the day” for this weekend appears to be chances for rain Saturday morning and evening. We went with the GFS, as the NAM’s surface temperatures were significantly (~10degF) warmer than observations were this morning.
The lobe of low pressure over Texas looks to become cut off overnight tonight, and travel due east all the way into Saturday night, becoming absorbed in its’ parent low offshore Sunday night, keeping its’ influence on the forecast area limited at best. The main feature will be a weak cold front moving through the area Saturday morning. Surface dewpoints of 50 degrees, weak but present 700mb vertical velocity values and weak PVA leads me to believe that this front will produce some weaker precipitation. Surface temps in the 50’s should negate any chance for wintry precip, but soundings show a relatively saturated troposphere overall, which should give way to widespread and thick cloud cover tonight into Saturday morning. CAPE values are measly in all measures, and the lid strength index indicates a moderate cap on the forecast area, suggesting slim to zero chance of anything convective. As such, we’ve added trace amounts to the precipitation forecast for Saturday morning. A second shortwave is noted in the evening, though with even less moisture to work with. Similar story to the first wave, this one should also bring a period of thick cloud cover and perhaps some light precip Saturday evening, clearing out by midnight.
By Sunday morning, the main speed max of the main low centered over the Great Lakes should move south, placing the backside of the trough over the forecast area. Some of these winds should mix to the surface, and as such gusty winds seem likely overnight Sunday. Otherwise, large scale ridging over the Rockies should transfer into the Plains, leaving us in a col point between the two systems ensuring peaceful weather.
-Thomas
No comments:
Post a Comment