Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms developing late tonight. Low: 54
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny with breezy conditions. High: 56
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 33
Thursday: Sunny. High: 59
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 35
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Discussion:
The threat of severe weather remains in place through the overnight hours as a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will move through late tonight. Conditions begin to dry out as we head into Wednesday, but temperatures will only be in the low 50s with 15-20 kt winds. Temperatures will slowly warm up going into the weekend with dry conditions expected the rest of the forecast period.
- McCormack
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Forecasters: Smitty, McCormack
Date Issued: 4/4/2023 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Both the GFS and NAM were used for this forecast as each were very similar to each other and to wider pressure trends nationwide though it is important to mention that neither model had detected the storms that were actively occurring in central MO at the beginning of the period.
A large trough is working its way through the region bringing with it the chance for storms across much of the midwest. The jet maxima will track right overhead in the early morning hours on Wednesday. Out ahead of this trough is a decent amount of divergence aloft which could help for the development of storms should the CIN cap be broken. When looking at the 500 MB vorticity map, there are lots of maxima wrapped in and around the center of the upper level low but that tracks over the northern US leaving central MO out of any strong bands of vorticity.
The 700 mb relative humidity map shows a very dry atmosphere but the 850 mb RH map shows nearly full saturation at ~95%. There is evidence of a strong low level jet that is advecting moisture from the gulf quite well into central MO as seen on the 850 mb. The 700 mb Omega/Vertical Velocity maps showed a decent amount of lift throughout the entire state for Tuesday night.
Soundings taken at 19:47Z showed conditions right as a severe thunderstorm was placed just north of Columbia. This sounding showed ample CAPE with 2648 J/Kg, Total Totals was at 59 and the Lifted Index was at 9. There was ample wind shear as surface winds were out of the direct south while upper level winds were out of the west. All of this comes together to support the idea of severe storms in the area. However there is the issue of the CIN cap which the sounding showed to be at 117 J/Kg. While not an insurmountable amount, peak heating is done for the day meaning this CIN cap likely will not be broken. If the cap were to somehow be broken it would be expected to have widespread severe weather but this is unlikely. With that being said, the storm earlier this afternoon has shown that an isolated severe storm or two could still pop up and have damaging winds and large hail while a weak tornado can not be ruled out.
A second line of storms will move through in the early morning hours around 8Z Wednesday. This will be a more organized line just ahead of the cold front. Model soundings suggest a strong environment for severe weather however when the models are compared to observed soundings, the models put out a very storm friendly environment whereas observed soundings have more CIN. This would likely lead to there being more CIN than models are outputting for tonight’s storms as well. As a result storms will likely stay in sub-severe categories. These storms will still likely have strong wind gusts and small hail.
A strong cold front following these storms will move through the area at approximately 12Z Wednesday. This will drop temperatures significantly. Highs after the passage will be in the upper 50s with lows in the mid 30s. As the trough works its way out of the region a high pressure system will build into the region helping to stabilize the weather. Many days of mostly clear sky and dry weather will characterize the middle of the week.
-Smitty
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