Monday Night: Few low level clouds. Low: 60
Tuesday: Afternoon scattered storms. Some may be severe. High: 87
Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms. Some may be severe. Low: 50
Wednesday: Clearing skies and breezy. High: 56
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 35
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion:
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue into tomorrow, with highs topping out in the upper 80s. Be weather aware, however! At this time, we are uncertain as to whether or not scattered severe thunderstorms will form across MO tomorrow afternoon. If they do, damaging winds, large hail, and even some tornadoes will be possible across central MO. Regardless, a line of storms will move through early Wednesday morning, bringing with them the chance for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two across the region. Even apart from thunderstorms, winds could gust as high as 45 mph across the region Tuesday afternoon.
Now is the time to prepare! Know where your safe place is in the event that we get severe weather. Have a way that is NOT a siren to warn you (like NOAA weather radio or WEA phone alerts.)
-Shaw
Forecasters: Shaw, Russell
Date Issued: 04/03/2023 6:00 PM CDT
Looking ahead at a potentially significant severe weather event across MO on Tuesday. The GFS, NAM, and EURO are all in good agreement that a low pressure center will rapidly deepen as it moves lee of the Rockies. Already, strong low level warm air and moisture advection are present across the region, bringing our temperatures up almost 20 degrees above average. Concerning the threat for severe weather tomorrow, all parameters look optimal with the (crucial) exception of uncertainty regarding the capping inversion across MO. This will be discussed in further detail shortly. After storms move out early Wednesday morning, rapid clearing will take place, and temperatures will become more seasonal to below average for the second half of the week.
Presently, mid and upper-level zonal flow sits across the area, with a weak surface low over KS. By late Tuesday morning, this zonal pattern will give way to southwesterly flow at all levels in response to the formation of a closed low over CO. As it moves into lower terrain across KS, this low will rapidly intensify, further enhancing low-level pressure gradient winds (which could gust to 45 mph), WAA, and moisture advection. By Tuesday afternoon, highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Jet streak coupling west of MO and a robust LLJ will create favorable wind profiles for rotating updrafts should storms form.
Significant uncertainty does exist with the formation of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Modeled severe parameters are exceptional, with CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg, TT in the upper 50s, LI of -10, SFC-3km shear of 25-35 kts, and an STP of almost 6. This is a classic 'loaded gun' sounding. The mitigating factor surrounds the presence of a capping inversion across central MO. There is a general lack of forcing across the region, with the exception being a dryline across western MO. This feature will not cross central MO until the overnight hours, when it is overtaken by a cold front. Thus, it will be difficult for thunderstorms to initiate during the afternoon hours. Still, the convective temperature will be very near the high temperature in the mid to upper 80s. If the convective temperature is reached, it is reasonable to assume that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will initiate across central MO. If this does occur, any storm will capable of producing strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
As aforementioned, a cold front will overtake the dryline in western MO by late evening on Tuesday. This line of storms will arrive in central MO in the early morning hours of Wednesday, once again bringing the chance for severe weather, though likely not of the same magnitude as is possible Tuesday afternoon. Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat with this round, though favorable shear profiles do still support the possibility for a couple of tornadoes.
Moisture will quickly move out Wednesday in the wake of the cold FROPA, though breezy conditions will still remain across the region for much of the day. Sensible weather becomes tranquil by Wednesday evening under clear skies as the low pressure center continues to pull north into Ontario. Radiational cooling will bring lows down near freezing across central MO by Thursday morning before temperatures trend back up to end the week.
The Tuesday AM forecast shift will want to monitor the presence of the capping inversion across the region, as this is of great importance in determining our severe weather threat tomorrow afternoon.
-Shaw
No comments:
Post a Comment