Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 53
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Discussion:
We’ll see cooler temperatures this weekend after a cold front passed through on Thursday. Temperatures on Friday will reach the low 60s, but windy conditions may make it feel a little colder. Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend with a high in the upper 40s and wind gusts up to 22 mph. The overnight temperature will drop below freezing, so be sure to cover any sensitive plants! Winds will die down and the sun will come out just in time for the Columbia Earth Day Festival on Sunday, raising temperatures into the low 50s.
- Sallot
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Forecasters: Sallot, Allen
Date Issued: 4/21/2023 10:00 AM CDT
The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend is
the Saturday night Freeze Watch, along with the northerly winds coming from the
low-pressure system that moved through northwestern MO Thursday afternoon. This
low has traveled up into MN and will soon move further northeast into Canada bringing
northerly winds to MO throughout the weekend. The NAM and GFS were both used
for this forecast as they both agreed on the positions of the troughs and
ridges and the low-pressure system in MN.
At 250mb, MO is in the middle of a deep trough with meridional
flow from Friday 12z to Saturday 21z and shifts to zonal Saturday 21z to Monday
0z. MO stays to the north of the jetstream that follows the flow of the deep trough
until about Sunday 0z when it covers the southern states. There is a low
pressure system that starts in MN at Friday 12z and moves northeast into Canada
at Saturday 0z and stays there the rest of the forecast period. There is some
wind divergence across Mid-MO throughout the forecast period, with the greatest
amount from Friday 12z to Saturday 9z. This will help support cloud production
from Friday afternoon into Saturday.
At 500mb, there is increased values of vorticity over MO
from Friday 12z to Saturday 12z. The location of the vorticity shifts until there
is only a line of vorticity over Mid-MO from Saturday 15z to Sunday 18z.. The low-pressure
system that is over MN continues north into Canada throughout the weekend, and
as this happened the deep meridional trough shifts to have a more zonal flow. This
shift occurs after Sunday 18z when there is no vorticity over MO for the rest
of the forecast period.
At 700mb, there is increased moisture in the shape of a comma
head cloud across Mid-CONUS, however MO stays in the dry zone from Friday 12z
to Saturday 0z. Boone County stays dry throughout the forecast period. Any
moisture that Mid-MO may get is the result of wrap-around moisture from the low
that is to our north in MN on Friday night. Despite the increased vorticity at 500mb,
this lack of moisture will prevent any precipitation from forming.
At 850mb, Boone County has CAA from Friday 12z to Sunday 0z.
There is some WAA on Sunday before temperatures are highest in the afternoon,
however winds from the north will keep temperatures cooler at the end of the
weekend with highs in the low 50s.
At the surface we see a high-pressure system over Mid-MO throughout
the forecast period starting Friday 18z. Saturday night into Sunday morning the
temperatures will get below freezing due to the constant northerly wrap around
flow from the low in MN. There is a Freeze Watch over Mid-MO which could lead
to frost on vegetation and raised surfaces.
-Allen
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