Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 46

 
 

 

 

 

Thursday: Overcast. Rain beginning in afternoon. High: 61

Thursday Night: Overcast as light rain continues overnight. Low: 48

 

 

 

 

Friday: Overcast. High: 67

 

 


 

Friday Night: Overcast. Low: 47

 

 

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Discussion:

 Temperatures are slowly on the rise. Daytime highs will be in the 60's leading up into this weekend. Light rain also looks likely for Thursday afternoon, lasting until Thursday night. when it is not raining, conditions will be cloudy leading up into the weekend.

-Cook

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Cook

Date Issued: 4/26/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

After a little bit of a dry spell, we may see some moisture falling from the sky Thursday afternoon. We are expecting to see a little bit of rain, accompanied with lots of clouds leading up into the weekend. The GFS was the main model used for the development of this forecast, along with assistance from the NBM for temperatures and precipitation totals. 

At 250mb, an amplified shortwave is situated over the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. This shortwave will trigger divergence ahead of it as it moves off to the east. This divergence is associated with rising air motion, which will allow for the development of showers out ahead of the shortwave. The divergence will be over  our CWA,  will remain weaker, suggesting lighter rain. As the shortwave moves off to the east, it will de-amplify as it is absorbed into the larger long wave trough, leaving our CWA under the long wave trough for the rest of the forecast period. 

At 500mb, the shortwave is still seen. Ahead of the shortwave, upper level air circulations exist ahead of it's general circulation. Those upper level circulations exist over the CWA for most of Thursday, with the strongest circulations being overhead Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Couple this with moisture that is seen at 700mb and 850mb on Thursday afternoon/evening, and all the ingredients for precipitation exist for the latter part of Thursday. This is supported by model soundings showing deepened saturation Thursday afternoon that lasts through Thursday night. Soundings for Friday morning shows lower level saturation, suggesting thick cloud cover Mid Missouri. This saturation exists throughout all of daytime Friday. Deep saturation briefly returns Friday night, but quickly leaves, leading to a drying trend for the end of the forecast period.

 -Cook