Friday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 38
Saturday: Mostly sunny: High: 67
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 42
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 70
Sunday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 46
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Discussion:
This weekend looks to be nice and sunny, with highs around 70 and light winds, just a little bit above average. Tonight will be a bit chilly, with a low below 40. Otherwise, a general warming trend into next week seems likely. Have a great weekend Tigers!
-Thomas
Forecasters: Sausen, Thomas
Date Issued: 4/7/2023 4:20PM CDT
Current conditions over Columbia are sunny, warm, and calm. Visible satellite imagery shows thin cirrus clouds over the CWA moving to the east. METAR temperatures are reading 57-59 degrees F over Central Missouri with southwesterly winds. The 12Z run of the GFS is utilized for this forecast due to it having more accurate local temperatures compared to the NAM, which ran colder.
At 200mb, the CWA is currently under the influence of the exit region of a jet streak off to the east with southwesterly winds until Saturday 09-12Z. Winds are meridional as the jet streak exits to the east. An amplified ridge arrives Saturday 18-21Z, slowing the winds down to 30-35kts. A positively-tilted longwave trough follows on Monday 12Z, changing the wind direction out of the north.
Winds at the 500mb level are zonal out of the west. Wind speeds are weak, ranging from 5 knots to 30knots throughout the forecast period. The ridge extends down into the 500mb level and arrives in Missouri at 21Z, giving the winds a more northwesterly component. A weak, positively tilted longwave trough then immediately follows the ridge on Monday 06-09Z, which will bring some vorticity to the region.
Winds at the 700mb level are out of the west and weaken as a high pressure system stalls over the CWA on Sunday 03Z, and remains overhead through the end of the period. The air is dry, with no RH values above 70%. No vertical velocity is present over the CWA throughout the forecast period.
At 850mb, the CWA remains under the influence of a high pressure system off to the east, with winds out of the south at 10-15kts. Moisture then makes its way into the CWA from the Gulf of Mexico starting Sunday 15-18Z, with RH values ranging from 70-85%.
Surface winds are of a southwesterly component with speeds ranging between 5-10kts. Conditions should remain calm throughout the forecast period. MSLP and 1000-500mb thickness gradients remain weak over the CWA, bringing no significant change in wind speed or direction.
Wind components out of the southwest combined with seasonal warming will make for a warmer weekend. NBM highs range in the upper 60’s. GFS and NAM MOS bulletins predict high temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s as well. Both deterministic output from the GFS and probabilistic output from the NBM suggest a clear sky over the CWA until Sunday afternoon, which will then increase to partly cloudy.
-Sausen
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