Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy/Isolated Shower Possible. High: 76
Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 59
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy/Isolated Shower Possible. High: 79
Wednesday Night: Showers Late. Low: 62
Thursday: Showers/Storms in morning and midday. High: 67
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Discussion:
"April showers bring May flowers" will be a good reference to use this week as the chance for showers will return starting today. Tuesday and Wednesday will have low chances of seeing rain, but not out of the question. Expect warmer temperatures as well starting today and into Wednesday before a cold front on Thursday will bring some rain and cooler temperatures to end the week off.Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik
Date Issued: 4/18/2022 10:00 AM CDT
The focus for this week will be the chance of rain throughout the week along with precipitation totals. For this forecast period, the NAM was used based on how it handled the current state of the atmosphere in regards to cloud cover in SW Missouri. Later in the week on Thursday, the GFS was having difficulties resolving precipitation amidst the cold front expected to move through the area that day so this gave reason to believe that the NAM would be better.
Currently, there is cloud cover encompassing southwest Missouri along a stationary boundary. This has brought with it some showery activity due to more moisture availability and higher dew points. Aloft, an upper-level ridge is centered over the central CONUS providing relatively calm weather for central MO and points north. Later in the day Tuesday, the stationary front will begin to shift north into central Missouri providing us a better opportunity at seeing a chance for rain. Precipitation chances won't be particularly high for central MO as some subsidence will be into place and moisture won't be too abundant.
The upper-level ridge will begin to shift eastward on Wednesday as a a cut-off low in the mid-levels will occur across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, the LLJ will become increasingly enhanced starting Wednesday over the central US. At the surface a strong pressure gradient thanks to a high pressure in the southeast will allow for stronger southerly winds at the surface. This, along with MO being fully in the warm sector, will bring temperatures even warmer into the mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. A tongue of moisture will be available for Missouri as dew points will reach close to 60 during the day which could kick off shower development, but a lack of forcing will make it very difficult.
As the LLJ reaches its full potential Wednesday night, moisture will be lifted northward into the area. This will usher in more cloud cover and sustained breezy winds from the south. Rain possibilities hold off until very late Wednesday night before becoming more likely Thursday morning. Circulation in Missouri will be apparent around 15Z Thursday as well as rising motion indicating higher chances of precipitation. Showers and storms appear likely ahead of the cold front Thursday. However, they aren't expected to be severe due to lack of rising motion, veering winds, and strong instability. After the frontal passage around 18Z Thursday, CAA will take over and dominate for the rest of the week.
-Simmons
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