Wednesday: Breezy, with decreasing clouds throughout the day. High: 54
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 34
Thursday: Sunny. High: 59
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 36
Friday: Sunny. High: 64
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Discussion:
After last night's storms, be ready for a calm and sunny week. While not as warm as the past couple days, the rest of this week will be pleasant, with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday might feel a little chilly due to winds from the north up to 20 mph, however the rest of the week will only see light winds. Try to get outside and enjoy the nice Spring weather!Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran
Date Issued: 4/5/2023 10:00 AM CDT
This forecast used the GFS as there were no prominent differences between the GFS and NAM for this forecast period. Both models agreed on the moisture content in the 700 and 850 mb levels, the timing of wind shifts, the distribution of 500 mb vorticity, and the position of 850 mb and surface-based high pressure centers.
A positively-tilted longwave trough at 300 mb currently located over the Upper Plains states will continue to lift up into Manitoba and Ontario throughout the week. As this trough lifts, MO remains under the influence of a jet streak with up to 140kt winds in the NE corner of the state. Despite the strong winds and the position of the jet streak, however, no divergence exists at this level throughout the period. As the base of the trough passes through MO Friday 09z-18z, the wind speed at this level decreases and the flow becomes zonal.
At 500 mb, a vorticity max colocated with the longwave trough is located to the north of MO throughout the forecast period. This area of high vorticity, however, will remain to the north of MO as it passes Thursday 03z to Friday 18z. This is similar to the 300 mb level, despite the position of a longwave trough to the north of MO, no forcing mechanisms influence MO throughout the entire forecast period, leading to a quiet week.
At 700 mb, all moisture and omega has moved out of mid-MO by Wednesday 18z. Throughout the rest of the period, no significant amount of moisture or omega moves into our area. 850 mb looks similar, with all moisture out of mid-MO at Wednesday 18z. Following the passage of moisture, high pressure begins to build in from the west at Thursday 00z. This high pressure center will track from OK to IL, passing over MO, and will keep our sky clear. In addition to the high pressure center, mid-MO will be under the influence of 850 mb CAA from Wednesday 15z to Thursday 18z, further providing sinking motion to inhibit cloud formation.
At the surface, 20kt NW winds coupled with thickness-pressure solenoids indicate moderate CAA until Wednesday 21z. This will further cool mid-MO down from yesterday's temperatures and inhibit rising air. High pressure builds in Thursday 06z, taking the same track at the surface as it does at 850 mb. On the backside of the high pressure center, winds will shift to the south Friday 06z, which will warm up mid-MO on Friday.
-Clark
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