Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

    Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 52

 
 

  Wednesday: Sunny. High: 80

 

     Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 53

 

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 79
 

 

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 53

  

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Discussion:

Warm and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the week! Make sure to get outside and enjoy the nice weather this week!

- Peine

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smitty

Date Issued: 4/11/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A blend of both the 18Z NAM and GFS were utilized for this forecast due to their agreement on the placement of synoptic scale features and temperature forecasted highs and lows. The problem for this forecast period is the risk of an elevated fire threat Wednesday afternoon across central Missouri.


At 250mb, upper-level ridging continues to dominate the western two-thirds of the CONUS with the jet stream being located slightly north of the U.S-Canadian border. Being located under the ridge, winds aloft are out of the southwest, supporting the idea of above average temperatures this week (avg. high 67). At 500mb, a cut-off low has begun to park itself near the Texas-Louisiana border and is forecasted to stall in this area for most of the forecast period. Furthermore, an area of high pressure is located near the Tennessee River Valley and is a big reason why our forecast period will be dry. A Rex Block pattern is currently in place with high pressure located to the north of the cut-off low. Nothing is forecasted to make these features move rapidly over the next couple days which is why temperatures are forecasted to be consistent.


For tonight, conditions should be mostly clear with winds out of the south at 5-10 mph. This will help keep low temperatures 5-10 degrees above average overnight (avg. low 45). For Wednesday, we will continue the warming trend thanks to the dominant southerly winds as high temperatures should approach the 80 degree mark with sunny conditions. Winds will be strong out of the southwest at 15-20 mph and relative humidity values are forecasted to be near 30% by Wednesday afternoon, so there is an increased risk for wildfires. Consider burning on a different day. Sky conditions will continue to remain clear as we move into Wednesday night with winds once again out of the south at 5-10 mph. Similar to Tuesday’s overnight low, temperatures Wednesday night should be in the low 50s.


For Thursday, high temperatures will be able to climb into the upper 70s once again with sunny conditions and 10-15 mph winds of the southwest. Our ridging pattern will finally be able to slide off to the east as an upper-level trough is forecasted to move into the Intermountain West and begin to change the weather pattern we’ve been stuck under this week. The cut-off low will also begin to move away from Louisiana and towards Tennessee which will help increase cloud cover for our area Thursday night. However, overnight low temperatures are forecasted to be in the low 50s with winds out the southwest at 10-15 mph.


Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the progress of the upper-level trough as models are indicating the possibility of rain chances as we head into the weekend.



-McCormack