Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 64

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low:48

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower High:63

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 47

 

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Discussion:

Cloud cover will begin to increase as we head further into the week with high temperatures in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s. A slight chance of rain is possible late Thursday afternoon, but total accumulation should only be around 0.1".

-McCormack

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Forecasters: Smitty, Peine, McCormack

Date Issued: 4/25/23

5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The biggest concern for this week will be a low that is currently over Utah that will eventually become cut-off. The GFS was the model used for this forecast as it is currently handling the upper level flow well. Also, the GFS is handling the surface systems and fronts better than the NAM. 

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge is currently seated over Missouri. This ridge will remain over Missouri until a cut-off low pushes it out of the area. This low is currently over Utah and it will become cut-off when it moves over the New-Texlahoma region on Wednesday. Missouri will then be under the influence of this cut-off low come Thursday morning. This cut-off low will cause a strong jet streak to form over central Missouri on Thursday at 15Z. However, the majority of the upper-level divergence will stay southeast of central Missouri. 

In the middle levels of the atmosphere, much is the same as at 300mb as there is currently a ridge that is parked over Missouri. As the cut-off low approaches towards Missouri, moderate vorticity advection will occur overnight Wednesday into Thursday giving central Missouri some vorticity. While some vorticity is expected over central Missouri, the vorticity max will stay south of us in Arkansas. The mid levels will remain dry until some moisture advects into the area Thursday morning. Along with this moisture, omega will also build in causing upward motions in the atmosphere. Similar to the vorticity, the greatest areas of moisture and omega will stay south of Missouri into Arkansas.

In the low levels of the atmosphere, Missouri will remain dry until Thursday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Missouri will be dominated by high pressure which will not allow any moisture to advect into the area. This will cause the moisture to remain in the southern parts of Missouri. A weak 850mb low will move right over Missouri Thursday which will then allow for moisture to build in Thursday morning. While there will be moisture, there will not be enough for storm development and this moisture will only bring clouds into the area, with a stray shower possible. 

At the surface, there is currently a very weak surface low off to the northeast at the border between Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa. While very light precipitation is possible from this surface low, the majority of the precipitation will remain to the northeast. As the week progresses, a strong surface high off to our east will dominate the atmosphere for Tuesday evening into Thursday morning. With this high pressure dominating, a light easterly wind will come into effect Tuesday night. As the week moves on, the surface low associated with the cut-off low will go south of central Missouri. The low is expected to pass through Arkansas Thursday afternoon. While the heaviest precipitation will stay south of Central Missouri, some light precipitation is possible Thursday afternoon in central Missouri. The expected precipitation total will be from a trace to .06''.
 

-Meier