Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Overcast. Low: 44
Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 68
Tuesday Night: Passing Clouds. Isolated Showers. Low: 45
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 67
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Discussion:
To start this week the area will continue with more normal temperatures for April with highs in the upper 60s. Weather conditions look to be relatively quiet, with mid-Missouri remaining mostly dry. Although Wednesday morning does have a chance for isolated showers, confidence in that outcome is low.
- Jones
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones
Date Issued: 4/24/2023 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
There was not much discrepancy between the GFS and the NAM for this morning's forecast. Both models had a good grasp of surface conditions and the placement of surface pressure systems. Because of the similarities, we will look at both models for our forecast along with the NBM for cloud coverage and temperatures.
For Monday, we are on the back-end of a trough which was responsible for the frost and freeze warnings across the state. Upper level winds will continue to be northwesterly as the day progresses. There is little to no circulation as well. Moisture levels increase through the evening in the middle levels which will bring mid-level clouds into the evening. Surface winds will continue to be southerly and will advect more warmer air into mid-Missouri. Highs for today will be seasonal (in the mid-60s) while lows will fall back into the mid-40s.
For Tuesday, divergence arrives with a weak shortwave trough in the early hours of the morning. There is moisture and circulation available for an isolated shower or two through the morning although this is likely to occur south of Columbia. Totals will be near trace amounts for this system. We expect cloud coverage to increase as the day progresses as the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere will be saturated. Highs will be in the mid-60s with lows in the mid-40s.
Things switch a bit for Wednesday as a low pressure system builds over the Rockies. This system will be the main focus of Wednesday's forecast. Upper level divergence is present through much of the day as saturation continues through the other levels. This is ample circulation with this system, however, model runs show a more stacked appearance of the system. With this said, the effects of it will be minimal. Cloud coverage will be abundant and we cannot rule out isolated showers through the day. Totals will be trace. Highs for Wednesday will be in the upper 60s.
Future forecasters should monitor the track of the low over Colorado. A move to the north could result in mid-Missouri getting higher precipitation amounts later in the week.
- Herion
For Monday, we are on the back-end of a trough which was responsible for the frost and freeze warnings across the state. Upper level winds will continue to be northwesterly as the day progresses. There is little to no circulation as well. Moisture levels increase through the evening in the middle levels which will bring mid-level clouds into the evening. Surface winds will continue to be southerly and will advect more warmer air into mid-Missouri. Highs for today will be seasonal (in the mid-60s) while lows will fall back into the mid-40s.
For Tuesday, divergence arrives with a weak shortwave trough in the early hours of the morning. There is moisture and circulation available for an isolated shower or two through the morning although this is likely to occur south of Columbia. Totals will be near trace amounts for this system. We expect cloud coverage to increase as the day progresses as the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere will be saturated. Highs will be in the mid-60s with lows in the mid-40s.
Things switch a bit for Wednesday as a low pressure system builds over the Rockies. This system will be the main focus of Wednesday's forecast. Upper level divergence is present through much of the day as saturation continues through the other levels. This is ample circulation with this system, however, model runs show a more stacked appearance of the system. With this said, the effects of it will be minimal. Cloud coverage will be abundant and we cannot rule out isolated showers through the day. Totals will be trace. Highs for Wednesday will be in the upper 60s.
Future forecasters should monitor the track of the low over Colorado. A move to the north could result in mid-Missouri getting higher precipitation amounts later in the week.
- Herion
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