Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday: Sunny. High: 65

 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 76

Tuesday Night: Isolated showers. Low: 56

 

Wednesday: Isolated showers. High: 79

 

 

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Discussion: 

The main focus for the early part of the week will be spotted showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. There was a lot of disagreement from the models but sounding support the chance of rain. A warm front will also pass through on Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures to the area as we see highs in the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Herion

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Forecasters: Herion, Jones

Date Issued: 4/17/2023 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The main focus for our forecasting period will be a shortwave ridge and a warm front passing through Tuesday at 3Z bringing some moisture which may allow for the chance of spotted showers in our area Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. The GFS was chosen for this forecast due to better placement of high and low pressure areas. 

Today will be calm as we are on the backside of a negatively tilted trough that is producing a lot of active weather to the NE. At the 850mb level a shortwave ridge begins building into our are area around 18Z there is no moisture associated with the front side of this ridge and the sky will remain clear today. At the surface winds will be out of NW at 10MPH and the high will reach 65 this afternoon with a low of 45 tonight.

Tuesday brings a chance for some spotted showers as the shortwave ridge moves directly over the forecast area while there is no divergence aloft the 500mb level some circulation is visible but most of it is to the south of the CWA. A warm front will pass through the area at 3Z bringing moisture and WAA on Tuesday, this will bring our best chance for rain showers Tuesday afternoon. The heavier rain looks to push to our north but spotted showers are a possibility. GFS soundings support a saturated environment with highest chances of precipitation between 18Z and 21Z. The southern winds warm the area up a bit with a daytime high of 76 and a nighttime low of 56.

Wednesday our area is still affected by the shortwave ridge with some divergence over the area but we have no circulation. There is some moisture at the 850mb level at 9Z and intensifying at 15Z lasting through the end of the forecast period. This will bring another chance for spotted showers during the day. The surface will have 10-15MPH winds out of the S throughout the day. The continued southern winds bring Wednesday to a high of 79 with mostly sunny skies. 

- Jones