Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 77

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 52

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 80

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 53
 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 79

  

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Discussion:

A beautiful week is forecast! High pressure will dominate Missouri for the entire week. This will bring a lot of sunshine and warm temperatures throughout the week.

-Meier 

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Forecasters: Meier, Simmons

Date Issued: 4/11/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Temperatures will be very stable this week as a strong upper level ridge will stay over the central US for the entire week. This ridge will result in warm temperatures and very limited amounts of moisture. While the NAM and GFS are mainly in agreement, we decided to stick with the GFS since it has a better handle on where the current high pressure system is along with what its track will be.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a cut-off low will remain to the south over the Gulf of Mexico. A strong high pressure system is currently situated over the central US will block the cut-off low from moving north. This blocking pattern will have Missouri under the influence of a strong ridge for the entirety of the forecast. 

 

In the middle levels of the atmosphere, much is the same as the same blocking pattern is seen. The cut-off low situated over the Gulf of Mexico will be blocked by a strong high pressure system over the Great Plains. The high pressure will block all vorticity from entering the CWA. Also, the strong ridge will not allow any mid-level moisture to be advected into Missouri for the majority of the week. Thursday afternoon will see modest amounts of moisture and vorticity advection occurring as the high pressure system moves off to the east. While no precipitation will occur, the moisture and vorticity will help aid in cloud formation Thursday afternoon.

 

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, Missouri will be completely devoid of moisture by Tuesday night. The reason for this is because a low-level ridge will form over the central US, which will block all moisture advection. As the week progresses, the high pressure system will move east. By Thursday afternoon, the high pressure system will have moved away so that moisture can be advected into Missouri. While there still is not enough moisture for precipitation, this saturation will help aid in cloud cover for Thursday afternoon. 

 

At the surface, southerly winds caused by a strong surface high are going to occur for the entire week. These southerly winds will help raise the temperature along with raise our surface dewpoints. While strong WAA is not likely, weak WAA will occur as the week progresses. This southerly wind will be the main reason as to why our high temperatures will be much warmer than the seasonal average. The southerly wind will not be very strong, however; by the end of the week the winds will be blowing at 10 knots.

-Meier