Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, building in the afternoon. High: 67

 
 

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 48

Thursday: Scattered showers beginning around noon, persist throughout the day into the evening. High: 59

 

 

Thursday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Low: 48.

 

 

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 67

 

 

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Discussion:

Missouri will continue its pleasant weather again this Wednesday being partly cloudy and a high in the upper 60s. This is not the case on Thursday as a low pressure system is propagating into the Mississippi Valley. This will being cooler temperatures (upper 50s low 60s) and limited rainfall to mid-Mo. Rain is expected to begin midday Thursday and die down in the evening and night hours with an overall accumulation up to a quarter of an inch. Friday, we go right back to our pleasant weather with a high in the upper 60s, again.

-Ritsema

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran

Date Issued: 4/26/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast primarily used the GFS due the higher confidence between members, compared to the NAM.

An upper-level shortwave will be propagating from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley Region tomorrow, before getting absorbed back into the jet-stream on Friday. This shortwave will be bringing minimal divergence aloft to mid-Missouri as the brunt of this system is situated to the south in TX, OK, and AK. The jet stream will be moderate with winds from the southwest up to 100 knots on Thursday. Zonal flow is initiated, yet again, after the shortwave has passes around 09z on Friday.  

Winds at 500mb remain weak for the entirety of the forecast period, never exceeding 30 knots. Although the winds are weak, circulation due to the shortwave does exist. Circulation is present in mid-MO from Thursday 00z until Friday afternoon, when this system leaves the area. 

 

Moisture in the lower levels are quite inconsistent with each other. 700 mb saturates between Thursday 12z and Friday 12z. At 850, moisture moves in overnight Wednesday at 21z and persists until Saturday 00z, and the surface lags behind the levels above it, where soundings show saturation of the surface saturation occurring around Thursday 18z, with a dry out on Friday at 18z. Due to this inconsistency of moisture between the three lower levels, rain will be likely between Thursday 15z and Friday 15z. Even so, the precipitation will be scattered throughout central Missouri.

 

The low track at the surface differs from that above it, as it takes a southerly track through Texas and Arkansas, into the eastern Great Lake Region. This will limit the forcing in MO, where minimal amounts of Omega correlates to scattered precipitation rather than widespread. Soundings suggest PWAT values between .8-.9 inches from Thursday 15z to Friday 06z with higher values in the early afternoon on Thursday. Accumulations up to a quarter of an inch are expected in mid-Missouri. After low passage, the lower levels dry out and sunshine will warm up and end the day Friday. 

-Ritsema