Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 70
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 49
Saturday: Decreasing Clouds in the afternoon. High: 66
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 43
Sunday: Mostly Sunny, breezy. High: 56
====================================================================
Discussion:
Hey there Tigers! This weekend is looking like a good time to enjoy the outdoors with high temperatures this Friday and Saturday reaching low-70s and mid-60s respectively. We will have a mostly sunny sky after Friday night as the atmosphere dries up Saturday afternoon. You may want a jacket on Sunday, though, as highs decrease to the mid-50s and winds reach about 17 mph throughout the day.-Allen
=================================================================
Forecasters: Sallot, Allen
Date Issued: 4/28/2023 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
The main concern of the forecast period is a cold front passing through the forecast area on Friday night. This front is expected to pass without precipitation, but will bring cooler temperatures. Both the NAM and the GFS were used to construct this forecast as both models had a good handle on current conditions and agreed for most of the forecast period.
At 250mb, the upper level flow is zonal until about Saturday at 18z when the flow becomes meridional and a deep trough extends into northern TX. The main systems of concern this weekend are a strong low pressure system moving from southern OK into northern TX and a second low pressure system moving from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. However, the positioning of these lows will keep MO out of the areas of active weather. As the southern low continues east, northerly flow takes over in the upper levels, and MO sits under the jet stream for the rest of the forecast period.
At 500 mb, a shortwave passes through the forecast area around Saturday 00z to 06z along with the cold front. This may support precipitation, but a lack of moisture will keep Mid-MO dry, so only some clouds are expected to develop Friday night with the frontal passage.
Additionally, each of the low pressure systems provide ample circulation for rising motion. This circulation bridges the two systems through MO around Saturday 12z before the southern low gets wrapped up into the northern low by Mon 00z. High circulation from the northern low in the Great Lakes reaches Mid-MO early Sunday morning. There is some model disagreement on this timing as the NAM expects this circulation around Sunday 00z to Mon 00z and the GFS expects this circulation around Sunday 12z and extends through the end of the forecast period. Despite this disagreement, a consensus on a lack of moisture will likely prevent any precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.
As the cold front passes around Saturday 00z to 03z and the northern low pressure system over the Great Lakes sits to our north east, north and northwesterly flow will dominate the flow at all levels for the rest of the forecast period. This will drop temperatures into the 60s and 50s on Saturday and Sunday, but a consistent lack of moisture will allow for plenty of insolation.
The main concern of the forecast period is a cold front passing through the forecast area on Friday night. This front is expected to pass without precipitation, but will bring cooler temperatures. Both the NAM and the GFS were used to construct this forecast as both models had a good handle on current conditions and agreed for most of the forecast period.
At 250mb, the upper level flow is zonal until about Saturday at 18z when the flow becomes meridional and a deep trough extends into northern TX. The main systems of concern this weekend are a strong low pressure system moving from southern OK into northern TX and a second low pressure system moving from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. However, the positioning of these lows will keep MO out of the areas of active weather. As the southern low continues east, northerly flow takes over in the upper levels, and MO sits under the jet stream for the rest of the forecast period.
At 500 mb, a shortwave passes through the forecast area around Saturday 00z to 06z along with the cold front. This may support precipitation, but a lack of moisture will keep Mid-MO dry, so only some clouds are expected to develop Friday night with the frontal passage.
Additionally, each of the low pressure systems provide ample circulation for rising motion. This circulation bridges the two systems through MO around Saturday 12z before the southern low gets wrapped up into the northern low by Mon 00z. High circulation from the northern low in the Great Lakes reaches Mid-MO early Sunday morning. There is some model disagreement on this timing as the NAM expects this circulation around Sunday 00z to Mon 00z and the GFS expects this circulation around Sunday 12z and extends through the end of the forecast period. Despite this disagreement, a consensus on a lack of moisture will likely prevent any precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.
As the cold front passes around Saturday 00z to 03z and the northern low pressure system over the Great Lakes sits to our north east, north and northwesterly flow will dominate the flow at all levels for the rest of the forecast period. This will drop temperatures into the 60s and 50s on Saturday and Sunday, but a consistent lack of moisture will allow for plenty of insolation.
Sallot
No comments:
Post a Comment