Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 53
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 54
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 80
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Discussion:
The trend of warm and sunny weather will continue for the rest of the work week. You can expect temperatures in the upper 70s and sunny conditions Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran
Date Issued: 4/12/2023 9:35 AM CDT
This forecast used the NAM and GFS as there were no prominent differences between the the two for this forecast period.
Present on Wednesday is a cut-off low situated over the lower-Mississippi Valley bringing southeasterly winds and fair weather to MO. This low will get wrapped up in the jet stream Thursday morning at 12z and begin to meander its way northeast, eventually dissipating in the northeast CONUS. An upper-level trough with relatively weak winds (50-100 kts) currently sits itself over the Pacific Northwest. As the week progresses, this trough will begin to traverse its way across the central United States. As it reaches the central plains, it takes a negative tilt before moving into central OK, KS, and NE. South-southwesterly winds will begin to pick up in the Central Plains into MO as this trough moves into the region.
Currently, Wednesday 15z, a small area of high pressure is situated over MO, preventing the cut-off low from progressing northward. As this high begins to move eastward Wednesday night into Thursday, the low begins its northeast track through the deep south. Some backside vorticity associated with this low will clip MO likely bringing some cloud cover to the state, although mainly southeast MO. Winds then shift to the west southwest on Friday at 18z ahead of the trough.
The same story can be said about the 700 mb level, as the high and low interact the same way. Spotty moisture will be present on the backside of the low along with small omega values likely causing spotty cloud cover in the region.
Southwesterly winds (20-30 kts) dominate the region at the 850 mb level for the entire forecast period as the high placement in the lower levels is further east over TN. Again, as the high and low move eastward on Friday, MO could be clipped by some backside moisture allowing for limited cloud cover that builds throughout the day Friday.
Much of the same story can be said at the surface with weak southerly winds (5-10 kts) throughout the forecast period. A mostly clear sky and southerly winds will keep surface high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s with lows in the mid 50s for mid-MO.
-Ritsema
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