Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 70
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Discussion:
The cooler temperatures of the week are behind us as a warming trend starts today, raising temperatures into the 60s today and tomorrow and even into the low 70s on Sunday. Expect cool mornings with temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s. These high daytime temperatures will be accompanied by plenty of sun, a few clouds, and calm winds. Enjoy a nice Easter weekend tigers!
Sallot
Forecasters: Allen, Sallot, McGuire
Date Issued: 4/7/2023 10:00AM CDT
The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend is the high-pressure system that will lead to a sunny sky and increasing temperatures. The NAM and GFS were both used for this forecast as they both agreed on the positions of the troughs and ridges and the high-pressure system that is covering the northeastern quarter of the CONUS for most of the forecast period.
At 250mb, MO is at the tail end of a shallow trough with the jet stream centered overhead from Friday 12z to about Saturday 15z. There is also wind divergence over the southern half of MO on Friday 18z. A small ridge moves into MO Saturday 12z and while this ridge is overhead, we have some small areas across the state that have wind divergence. This is until about Monday 0z when a small trough moves into our forecast area and brings increased values of wind divergence from TX up to WI.
At 500mb we are in a shallow trough during all of Friday with a line of vorticity across Mid-MO at 18z. The shallow ridge moves over MO at about Saturday 12z with vorticity over Boone County Sunday 15z. There is another shallow trough moving into MO on Sunday 21z, with a lot of increased vorticity from our west heading toward MO. This, along with the large meridional ridge to our west, should be something the next forecast shift keeps an eye on since there is a low chance of rain on Monday.
At 700mb there is moisture across the southern states and Iowa on Friday, however MO remains dry and relatively cloud free on Friday as we are leaving the shallow zonal trough and entering a ridge on Saturday 0z. During this ridge, a high-pressure system will develop over MO on Sunday 12z that will remain until Monday 0z when we are about to enter a small trough. The next forecast shift should also watch for the moisture that comes in from the west at 700mb and 850mb on Monday.
At 850mb there is a ridge over MO that lasts throughout the forecast period. From Friday 12z to about Saturday 3z there is a high-pressure system over MO and IL that will allow the sky to remain sunny on Friday and Saturday. As the high-pressure system moves into the IN and OH region, we have some moisture advection from the gulf that will cover the southern half of MO and could allow the formation of some clouds on Sunday. However, there is no chance of rain over MO until after this forecast period.
At the surface we see a large high-pressure system over the
Great Lakes region from Friday 12z to Saturday 15z. This causes the winds over
Boone County to be from the east until about Saturday 12z, when the winds shift
to a more southeasterly flow at about Saturday 18z. These southerly winds will
help bring warm air from the south into our region, however it should also be
noted that the surface winds throughout this weekend will be pretty calm as
they do not reach speeds higher than 10 knots for a short period of time.
-Allen
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