Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 56

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 36

Friday: Mostly sunny: High: 62

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 38

 

 

 

 

 Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 65

 

 

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Discussion:

Thankfully, we are going to be getting a nice break from the crazy severe weather mid-Missouri has been experiencing. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s for today and will be slightly increasing over the next couple days. Be aware evening temperatures will approach freezing which can pose a threat to any growing springtime plants.

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Forecasters: Hefner, Samson, and Macko

Date Issued: 4/6/2023 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The focus of the forecast period was determining if the mild and less active weather will continue to persist over mid-Missouri. For this forecast the GFS was favored. While the GFS and NAM both shared great consistency, the GFS was chosen due to its slightly better representation of initial heights and wind conditions.

At the time of constructing this AFD, Columbia is currently under a Frost Advisory due to the near freezing temperatures of last night. However, with the current temperature rising to the upper 30s, there is no risk to growing vegetation at this time. Similar nightly conditions are expected this evening as temperatures are forecasted to dip to a low of 36, which is the minimum threshold to issue an additional Frost Advisory. Future forecasting shifts should pay mind to the overnight temperatures over the next couple of days as frost may be possible. These near freezing temperatures may affect plants during this critical early growing season.

Missouri is currently experiencing a transition period from meridional jet stream flow to a zonal flow. The zonal structure of the jet combined with no measurable divergence aloft will lead to far less active weather over our region. This break from the highly active spring weather we have been experiencing will continue to persist for the foreseeable future. On Friday at 03Z, a narrow band of vorticity sweeps over Columbia. However, due to a lack of moisture in both the 700mb and 850mb levels, precipitation is not expected to occur. Saturday at 12Z winds will switch to the south, allowing for slightly warmer than the climatological normal temperatures for this weekend.

-Hefner