Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday: Light rain with possible scattered thunderstorms. High: 72
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 46
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 62
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Discussion:
Light rain is expected on Thursday, with one round in the morning and one round in the afternoon. No severe potential is expected, just be ready to hear a few rumbles of thunder throughout the day. Expect cooling temperatures for the end of the week as conditions dry out for Friday.
-Chirpich
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Forecasters: Chirpich and Cook
Date Issued: 4/19/2022 5:00 PM CDT
Between the GFS and the NAM, both models displayed a high level of consensus regarding surface winds and surface pressure-system placement. Minute differences in the upper-level flow in favor of the GFS led its 12Z run to be chosen for this forecast. The NAM was also consulted for the forecast as well, just to a lesser extent. The main focus of this forecast is the incoming rain and cooler temperatures for the end of the week.
A ridge is currently sitting over Missouri but will quickly move off to the east as a negatively-tilted trough makes its way into the region. The largest regions of divergence at 250 MB stay to the south, mainly in Louisiana, Arkansas, and southern Missouri. This, combined with a jet streak and vort max that stays north of Missouri in Iowa and Wisconsin, limits the severe weather potential for the area.
The aforementioned trough is associated with a surface low-pressure system that is expected to move into the forecast area on Thursday. A FROPA is expected on Thursday around 18Z, which will provide lift for possible thunderstorms to form in the forecast area. There is limited moisture at 700 MB as Columbia will remain in a dry slot until Saturday. However, at 850 MB, the low-level jet will reach a peak strength of around 60 kts, allowing for moisture transport into the region to support rain. 850 MB dewpoints stay near 10 degrees Celsius for Thursday, but drop off by Thursday night. The rain potential is at its highest during two differnet rounds: Thursday morning and then afternoon, and the latter coincides with the timing of possible scattered thunderstorms. No severe storms are expected however, as there will be minimal CIN, taking away the possibility of a strong cap forming. The larger focus for Thursday is the light rain, expected to not exceed 0.25," and strong surface winds. After the rain and FROPA, cooler temperatures are expected to move in for Friday with highs near 60 degrees and even cooler temperatures for the weekend.
-Chirpich
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