Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
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Discussion:
The risk for showers and thunderstorms has ended for our area with no rainfall expected for the rest of the weekend. Thanks to the cold frontal passage that came through earlier this afternoon, we will see temperatures dip into the 40s tonight with cooler temperatures remaining for the rest of the weekend with a high of 49 expected for Saturday. =================================================================
Forecasters: Labit, Easter, and Macko
Date Issued: 4/20/2022 5:00 PM CDT
When comparing how the GFS and the NAM have handled the Thursday afternoon storms, observations aloft and present moisture near the surface show that the NAM better forecasted these features. Furthermore, current satellite and radar have severe thunderstorms in both southern and more northeastern Missouri. The NAM has better identified the intensity of these storms while the GFS doesn't have storms intensifying until after it moves into Illinois.
A 250mb longwave trough is positioned over the Central Plains along with an upper-level cyclone located in northern Minnesota. This cyclone will influence the path of the trough as it takes an easterly trajectory across the United States. By early Saturday morning, a cyclonically curved jet streak will begin to amplify the trough turning more negatively tilted. Simultaneously, the trough will begin to get wrapped into the cyclone causing the trough to deamplify as quickly as it amplified, bringing us into a more zonal pattern by late Saturday night.
Saturday morning this trough amplifies, and multiple shortwave pulses are seen with the movement of the cyclone. As this translates to the surface, multiple cold fronts are expected to cause temperatures to drop well below average. (Average temperatures for April ~69F. The forecasted high temperatures for Saturday will be in the low 50s). While this creates a forcing mechanism both in the mid-levels and at the surface, minimal relative humidity is present to fully saturate to the surface meaning the likelihood of precipitation on Saturday to be minimal. However, there are enhanced levels of relative humidity near the surface on Saturday evening meaning scattered cloud development is likely.
-Labit
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