Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 44

Tuesday: Mix of sun and clouds. High: 68

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 45

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 64

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 45

 

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Discussion:

Enjoy the sun while it lasts because things take a turn towards the dreary as we move to mid week. Temperatures will remain seasonal, and the sky will remain dry as we will be moisture barren through the week. 

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 4/24/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Things remain relatively quiet this week as a large upper-level ridge located off to our south east has left us in a zonal flow with consistent west flow. Following the exit of the riding a weakening trough will eject off the Rockies which will bring a slight decrease in temperatures and increase in overall moisture without much in the way of observable precipitation. This model suite showed some considerable disagreement in timing of the weakening trough and precipitation amounts, thus I decided to use the GFS as it had a better handling of the current location of the trough across the west.

Things Monday Night into Tuesday look to follow a similar regime that we've seen across the past couple of days. The upper air pattern will remain in that zonal flow we've seen across the last couple of days as the large upper level low pressure continues to spin out across the eastern Canadian provinces. A very weak shortwave will propagate through the area come Tuesday morning into the afternoon. This will be responsible for precipitation breaking out across Northern MO, down across Central Missouri, limited moisture in the low-levels will prevent anything in the way of precipitation. The SW paired with south winds will aid us in seeing a slight bump in dew points and some increasing mid-level clouds. As we move into Tuesday night we start to see the weak trough slowly ejecting off the Rockies which will be responsible for the next potential for moisture.

As we move into Wednesday, a small upper level ridge ahead of the approaching trough will move into the region and bring another push of moisture. On the flip side to Tuesday, rain and storms will blossom across southern Missouri ahead of the approaching trough, but again moisture in the low-levels will be lacking and thus very little if any precipitation will manage to make its way into Central Missouri. As the trough axis begins to work its way over the region, it will under go rather rapid de amplification which will further secure our fate of no precipitation. Despite the death of the toughing overhead, it will still bring a small drop in our temperatures Wednesday into Thursday and paired with remnant moisture meaning cool cloudy days for the foreseeable future.

Future forecasters should continue to monitor the progression of the trough off the Rockies as a more intense or further north solution could promote substantially more in the way of rain and storms.

-Russell