Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 32

 
 

 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 56

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low:36

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy: High: 62

 

 
Sunny. High: 64

 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 38

 

 

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Discussion:

Cooler temperatures continue for Thursday as sky conditions stay partly cloudy. 

A warm up is on the way for Friday though as we return to the 60s in the afternoon.

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Cook, and Cochran

Date Issued: 4/5/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast as it better handled Wednesday afternoon's cooling temperatures. The issue for this forecast period is the changing temperatures and conditions following Wednesday morning's storms. 

The low-pressure system which was responsible for this week's storms is currently situated over the Great Lakes region and will continue to move northeast as the week progresses. Thus, Missouri will stay in a meridional flow before transitioning to zonal by Friday. A cold front passage this morning has caused a northerly wind shift and resulted in cooler temperatures for Wednesday. The area is still under the influence of a jet streak contained in the eastern part of the trough, but will be in the downward motion sector as it moves east. No upper-level divergence at 250MB is expected to enter the area, limiting any further chance of severe weather this week. 

 

Vorticity at 500MB associated with the aforementioned low-pressure system stays north of Missouri for the entire forecast period. There is also a severe lack of moisture at 700MB and lower dew points at 850MB, inhibiting dense cloud cover or any rain chances for the forecast period. The end of the week is expected to be mainly clear as high-pressure builds into the region. Winds stay northerly for Thursday before taking a southerly shift on Friday. Thus, cool temperatures continue for tomorrow before a warmup is due for Friday and the weekend.

-Chirpich