Wind Advisory from 11AM CST to 6PM CST

                 

Wednesday- Mostly cloudy and windy with winds gusts up to 45mph. 

High 68-72

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low: 52-56

Thursday - Cloudy with widespread rain showers. High: 58-62

 

Thursday Night-  Cloudy. Low 40-44

 

Friday - Cloudy with afternoon rain. High: 50-54

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Discussion:

Pleasant weather across the area has largely come to an end courtesy of a stalled out frontal system impacting a large portion of the Midwest. Today, we face windy conditions, and as such, we are under a Wind Advisory from 11Am-6PM CST. In addition to windy conditions, rain chances truly ramp up as we head overnight into tomorrow and Friday. Get your umbrellas ready, because spring showers are in full force. With this frontal boundary being stationery to our south, our temperatures can be expected to flux slightly after the front pushes through.

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Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 10 March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was assembled using the 06Z GFS, GEFS plumes, and GFS soundings. The GFS was chosen because of its initial condition accuracy. While no models have been perfect with the high temperatures in the past few days, the GFS has handled them the best. The problem of today's forecast period will be a stalled out front bringing waves of precipitation to the area. 

The 250-mb level for today shows no defined jet streak over mid-Missouri. A jet streak begin to appear at 03Z Thursday, and the jet max will reside over northern Missouri by 03Z Friday.

At 500-mb vorticity readings are unimpressive throughout Wednesday and Thursday. By 21Z Friday, we do see some vorticity enter the area, but it is not expected to be widespread.

700-mb maps yet again show low RH values throughout a large portion of today and Thursday. By 21Z Friday, RH values will skyrocket back to near 100%. Vorticity levels stay low until 18Z Friday. Once again, this will not be widespread. 

The 850-mb level is where RH finally appears for Wednesday. RH levels throughout today will be in the upper 90% range, and they will stay high until the end of the forecast period. Having moisture at this level suggests lower level cloud cover which will help the atmosphere's stability throughout the next few days. This will limit the intensity of storms, especially tonight. Vorticity levels once more are lackluster; this reinforces the idea that storm development will not be impressive.

The surface level right now has 4 different isobars across Missouri as a whole. This is a large contributing factor to our gusty conditions that have lead to a Wind Advisory out of the NWS from 11AM-6PM CST today. We can expect winds gusting up to 45mph this afternoon. RH readings are still elevated for the surface level, which will keep cloud cover in the forecast. 

The SPC has issued a marginal risk for the area today, but there are no strong indicators that we will see severe weather. If cloud cover does break slightly, that could feed storm intensity, but lower level clouds are expected to hold for the afternoon. Soundings do suggest enough CAPE present overnight from 09Z until 15Z Thursday to produce thunderstorms. However, soundings do not suggest the presence of CAPE after 15Z Thursday through Friday, limiting our chances for storms. Saturation is prominent on soundings throughout Thursday night and Friday afternoon. This reinforces rain chances. By 00Z Saturday, we can expect to pick up 1.5-2.0" of accumulating rainfall.

Future forecasters should keep an eye on cloud cover this afternoon as any clearing could lead to more instability for tonight's storms. In addition to this, they should monitor rain chances for Friday and the weekend.