Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 44-48
Wednesday - Overcast with rain. Possible thunderstorms throughout the day. High: 56-60
Thursday - Cloudy with rain. Breezy. High: 42-46
Friday - Sunny. High: 48-52
We
hope you aren’t too tired of the rain yet, because the showers and
thunderstorms we’ve been seeing over the past couple of days aren’t
leaving mid-Missouri quite yet. Tonight will give us a short break from
the rain, but make sure to pack your umbrella with you if you plan on
heading outside tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible late
tomorrow morning and throughout the day Thursday as a low pressure
system will be making its way over mid-Missouri in the next few days.
Rain totals will add up to around 1-2 inches by Thursday evening. Skies
will begin to clear Thursday night, and the sun will finally start to
show itself by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon skies will be clear
and mid-Missouri will be able to take a deep breath of relief as those
consistent rain chances we’ve been seeing will finally leave our area. Temperatures throughout the rest of this week will be very
seasonably appropriate as some days will reach the mid 40s while others
will jump up to the comfortable high 50s. Remember to bring a light
jacket or even a raincoat if you are planning on going out in the
evenings, and make sure to finally enjoy the sunshine on Friday.
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This forecast was assembled using the 12Z run of the GFS, SREF and GEFS plumes of temperatures and rainfall, and GFS soundings for timing and severity of incoming rain events. It should be noted that the SPC has Mid-Missouri under a marginal risk in Wednesday's convective outlook.
At the 250-mb level, GFS plots of heights, winds, and divergence has a negatively tilted trough entering Missouri around 21Z Wednesday, bringing with it an abundance of upper level divergence. The trough passes by 21Z Thursday, and Missouri falls under the influence of an upper level ridge, which will bring clear skies and calm conditions for the end of this forecast period. Future forecasters should watch for how long this ridge persists and the calm conditions last.
The 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity depict the intensity of the low associated with the upper level trough. The low has abundant vorticity associated with it which will first enter Missouri around 21Z Wednesday. The best potential for severe weather will begin around this time as the low enters and moves through southern Missouri. By Friday morning the vorticity moves out and leaves the area with clearing skies and calmer weather.
Plots of relative humidity and heights at 700-mb show that abundant amounts of moisture enter Missouri before the passage of the low. By 12Z Wednesday Mid-Missouri has enough moisture for rainfall, meaning Wednesday will see rain for almost the entirety of the day. The evening passage of the low will bring with it the heaviest rain of the day. QPF values puts Mid-Missouri receiving about 1 inch of rain from this system alone. Moisture remains in the area until around 06Z Friday, when clear skies return. By the end of this rain event, Mid-Missouri will be looking at a total QPF of 1.0 - 2.0 inches.
The 850-mb plot of winds and temperatures reveal where all of this system's moisture is coming from. A strong LLJ funnels in moisture starting Wednesday at 0Z and continues until the winds are changed due to the passage of the low pressure system. After the low passes, strong northerly winds dominate over Missouri, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions on Thursday. As Missouri falls under the influence of the ridge on Friday, winds will be coming from an easterly direction, slowly bringing warmer temperatures. GFS surface plots of thickness, MLSP, and winds tell the same story as the 850-mb level. WAA takes over after the passage of the low, bringing warmer temperatures for the forecast area on Friday.
GFS soundings suggest the highest opportunity for severe weather to occur with the passage of the low pressure system on Wednesday at 21Z. This time, and the hours immediately before and after it, have MUCAPE values ranging from 100-400 J/kg. Strong negative omega values suggest significant UVM and increases the chances for hail. Wednesday morning's forecasters should keep a close eye on the development of this system.
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