Thursday, March 25, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Thursday -
Rain, especially in the afternoon. Breezy. High: 48-52.
 
 

Thursday Night -
Mostly cloudy. Rain moving out in the evening. Low: 38-42.
 
 

Friday -
Partly sunny. High: 60-64.
 
 

Friday Night -
Gradually clearing by midnight. Low: 48-52

 
 

Saturday -
Sunny with lingering clouds. High: 66-70. 

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Discussion: 


Today temperatures are going to have a hard time increasing as there is a low pressure system that will push through the area bringing rain along with it. At times this precipitation could be heavier, but overall there is no potential for severe weather. Precipitation totals will fall between 0.5-1.0 inch of rain. This precipitation will begin to move out into the overnight hours. Humidity will stick around in the morning hours on Friday, but then will begin to clear. Mid-Missouri will start to fall into a warming trend between Friday and Saturday before our next cold front begins to move in Saturday night.

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Forecaster: Ede, Gasch, Pauley
Issued: 10:00 AM CDT 25 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

The GFS was used in this forecast as the NAM was forecasting much cooler temperatures than the GFS and the GFS was forecasting sea level pressures closer to the analysis. The focus of this forecast is the system moving through today and very warm temperatures for Saturday.


Starting in the upper atmosphere at 250 mb, there is a jet streak over Missouri, oriented southwest to northeast. This upper level flow is what will guide the storm system today and into the weekend. Additionally, the upper level divergence situated over Missouri will increase the possibility of moderate rain today. By 00z tonight, a shortwave trough will push the last of the divergence out of Missouri, forcing the rain along with it. This shortwave is followed by a more significant longwave trough that is going to provide strong southwesterly upper level flow for Friday and Saturday.


Moving down to 500 mb, there continues to be southwesterly flow over Missouri. The low at 500 mb is over Southeast Missouri, showing a slight negative tilt to the system, indicating a potential for strengthening in the next 12-24 hours. This strengthening will not affect Missouri, though. Strong circulations associated with this system will pass through Missouri, providing increasing likelihoods of rain. By Saturday, Missouri is under a strong southwesterly flow regime. A strong upper level trough will also develop by Saturday, driving the next big weather change.


At 700 mb, there is still southwesterly flow. The upper level low becomes slightly stacked underneath the 500 mb low, so the low may not develop as much. Associated with this low is a lot of moisture and strong vertical motion, which will influence the rain for today. After the low passes, the moisture continues to stick around as the influence from the upper level trough increases in the Missouri area. However, this moisture will not bring anything more than a scattered cloud. 


Down at the surface, Missouri is under the influence of cold air advection for today, but that will switch to warm air advection by Friday night and Saturday, driving increased temperatures for Saturday. For today, rain is going to start between 15Z and 18Z and will likely end between 03Z and 06Z. Missouri will see between 0.5 inches and 1 inch of rain throughout Friday.

 

Looking ahead, Saturday will be unseasonably warm. By Saturday evening, the potential for strong storms will coincide with a cold front that will pass through Missouri Saturday evening. Saturday night will need to be focused on for future forecasters.

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