Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night- Rain and Thunderstorms. Low: 34-38

 

 Thursday- Rain and Snow mix. High: 42-46

 

Thursday Night - Rain ending in the evening. Low: 24-28

 

Friday- Sunny. High:48-52

 

 

Saturday- Sunny. High: 58-62

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 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 

 Our main focus for the next couple of days is the mid latitude cyclone that will slide to our south throughout the day on Wednesday.  Central Missouri will see widespread rain overnight with the thunderstorms possible.  As the system moves eastward, it will bring the unsettled weather with it.  Thursday will remain rainy.  However, it will be much cooler Thursday, so precipitations might begin as snow in the morning and switch over to rain as it warms up.  The rain should finish around 10 PM on Thursday.  Friday will see drier conditions as we come under the influence of a high pressure system.  Saturday will remain clear and sunny: a nice spring day. 

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Forecaster: Gasch, McGuire, Vanderpool

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 17 March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

This forecast was assembled using a blend of the 12Z GFS  and the 18Z of the NAM. A blend of the models were chosen due to the way initial conditions were handled. SREF and GEFS were used in precipitation and MUCAPE forecast values. The main focus of this forecast period is the next 24 hours as this is when precipitation is expected to fall in the region and thunderstorms are likely. The SPC has Mid-Missouri under a marginal risk in the convective outlook valid until 12Z Thursday. Reflectivity currently shows that there is no rain or impending precipitation for Columbia with storms located and developing in Southwest Missouri. 

 

At the 250-mb level, an upper level low associated with a trough, is located over Nebraska and a jet streak to the Northeast. There is significant divergence aloft and there will continue to be through around 12Z as the upper level low progresses overhead. The trough will move eastward, taking the low  with it and placing Missouri well-upstream of the trough axis by Friday at 18Z as a ridge builds into the region for the remainder of the forecast.

 

At the 500-mb level, a closed low is located over the center of Oklahoma. The 500-mb chart provides the same trough/ridge pattern as the 250-mb chart, vorticity is advected into the region as the low progresses Eastward. The majority of the circulations look to be in the Southern third of the state by 03-06Z Thursday. As the low exits to the East, higher vorticity values are advected into Mid-Missouri with the wrap-around flow of the low by 18Z Thursday. 

In the lower levels, 700-850mb, the low pressure system is located over central Oklahoma and southerly flow dominates Wednesday. The Southerly flow advects the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that will drive the precipitation the area will see through Thursday afternoon. As the low travels to the East of Mid-Missouri, significant CAA takes place. The CAA will lead to decreasing temperatures Thursday into the low-mid 30s and with the present moisture could lead to snow, with the best chance from 15-18Z.

 

Through Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning rain and thunderstorms are likely, however, due to the values of MUCAPE (GFS-->showing no more than 20 J/kg, and Sref Mean-->showing around 220 J/kg at 03Z Thursday, with great uncertainty among members), severe thunderstorms should not be expected as far North as Columbia. Based from soundings along with SREF and GEFS plumes, snow looks to be likely anywhere from 15-18Z. Overall rainfall amounts through Thursday look to be up to an inch and now snowfall accumulations are to be expected. As the ridge builds in from the West, Missouri can expect dry and Sunny conditions the rest of the forecast period.

 

Future forecasters will need to focus on the progression of the low pressure system mentioned above and the precipitation associated with it.