Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy with decreasing cloud cover. Low: 32-36

 

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 54-58

Saturday Night - Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Sunday - Sunny and warmer. High: 60-64

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66

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Discussion: 

The tranquil weather pattern will persist through the weekend thanks to upper level ridging and high pressure building into the Central and Southern Plains Saturday. Temperatures will gradually continue to warm up through Monday as the high moves from our southwest to our southeast Sunday into Monday. This will swing our winds around to the south and stream warmer temperatures but not much moisture up from the Southern Plains. The ridge will broaden by the end of the forecast period and combined with that warm air advection will bring a pleasant and mild start to the second week of March.

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Forecaster: Bongard, Travis

Issued: 4:00 PM CST 05 March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

Persistence is the story for this weekend and into Monday. Quiet, pleasant weather will continue throughout the weekend as highs may even climb above average. Went primarily with GFS guidance as it had a much better handling on Friday afternoon’s high temperatures than the NAM which was running about 10-15 F too warm. Consulted ensemble plumes for daily temperature trends as well.
 

Diagnostics of the atmosphere indicates n upper-level shortwave seen at both 250 and 500 hPa is currently digging its way into the lower Mississippi River Valley from the Northwest. The GFS suggests that the vorticity maximum seen at 500 hPa will pass well to the south of Missouri and into central Arkansas during the day Friday and into Saturday night. The southerly track of the upper-level disturbance will keep the bulk of the moisture well to the south. As of 21z Friday, minimal moisture has managed to infiltrate the area in the form of invading cirrostratus with a small amount of middle clouds strewn about the sky. This will be the extent of the effects that this system will have on our area. GFS soundings suggest that mid-level moisture will stick around until Saturday morning and with it our partly cloudy skies.
 

Behind the exiting shortwave, 500-hPa height fields indicate ridging in the upper levels building in by Saturday evening and into Sunday morning. Flow then turns zonal as the large scale pattern deamplifies over the CONUS. This will contribute to our lack of interesting whether for the remainder of the forecast period. In the lower levels, high pressure at 850 hPa slides to the east beneath the building ridge. This will allow our low-level winds to turn southwesterly and remain so into Monday. A moderate LLJ sets up Sunday, but originates out of the drier cT airmass of the desert southwest. The LLJ axis shifts slightly to the east and will potentially allow more moisture rich Gulf air to move in. The GFS plot of MSLP and 1000- to 500-hPa thickness shows broad WAA solenoids, but some advection nonetheless. This, coupled with the developing LLJ will allow our temperatures Sunday and Monday to rise well above the average for March and into the mid to upper 60s.
 

Save for the bit of exiting mid-level moisture mentioned above, GFS soundings remain dry. Expect to see mostly sunny skies with some fair weather clouds here and there. Overall a fantastic weekend is in store! The next forecast shift should pay close attention to the orientation of the LLJ axis for increased warn air and moisture advection going into next week. May need to end up adjusting Monday highs accordingly.