Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday - Cloudy, rain with possible thunderstorms. High: 60-64
Tuesday Night - Cloudy, rain moving out.
Wednesday - Partly to mostly cloudy. High: 54-58
Wednesday Night - Cloudy, rain late. Low: 42-46
Thursday - Overcast with scattered showers. High: 52-56
Starting out Tuesday things are going to look pretty gloomy, as rain pushes to the north. This could give us the opportunity to see some peaks of sun between 11am and noon, but can't rule out any brief spot showers moving through. There will be another possibility for rain between 12pm-5pm, a line of storms are going to start to develop perpendicular to I-70 and west of Columbia. This line of storms will then push northeast, as these storms develop they could be strong to severe, but the risk is low. Central to northeast Missouri is under a marginal risk for storms today, this means any storm that could be strong too severe could produce small hail, strong winds, and a possible brief spin up tornado. The rain/storms that we will be seeing today is associated with a low pressure system, by tonight that low pressure system will be moving northeast. This low pressure system also has a cold front associated with it, this will be dropping our temperatures into the low to mid 50’s for the next few days. The bulk of the rain will be clearing out which will leave us with right around a half of an inch for precipitation totals and cloudy skies into tonight and Wednesday. Into late Wednesday night into Thursday there will be another possibility of rain as a low pressure system from the south moves north and pushes moisture up into Missouri.
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For this forecast period the primary model used was the 13z HRRR. This model was grasping the low pressure system better than the GFS and the NAM. Moisture in the HRRR correlated with current conditions when the GFS and the NAM was grasping excessive moisture. The 12z NAM was used in temperature guidance as well as SREF plumes. The GFS was showing colder temperatures compared to current temperatures. The NAM had more of a warmer bias which fit with current temperatures.
Currently, at 250-mb there is a low pressure system that is out in front of a trough located in central to eastern Kansas. As the day progresses a tiny jet streak will start to form into central Illinois. This jet streak will lie southeast of the low pressure systems core. Headed down to 500-mb vorticity the bulk of any possible circulation is lying north of Missouri. There is a line of storms that is expected to be moving in the mid Missouri area around 12pm-5pm, around that time period there is a band of possible circulation that increases. At 700-mb the low pressure system is sitting at the border of Kansas and Missouri. The bulk of the lift is mainly north/northeast missouri. Any vertical motion will increase slightly around 12pm-5pm and then the majority of the vertical motion will then exit the Missouri area after that time frame. For the majority of day wind will be coming from the south which will help bring in warm air advection. Winds could be anywhere between 40kts-50kts 12z-21z Tuesday. Conditions today will be breezy especially in the afternoon hours. There is the possibility to see those storms that are rolling in between 12pm-5pm to be strong to severe. MUCAPE values will lie anywhere between 500-1000J J/kg, this is an increase from the last forecaster. Given the dynamics present, any of these storms that are strong to severe may have the primary threats of small hail, gusty winds, and a possible brief spin up tornado. The SPC has already issued a marginal outlook to experience these primary threats for the central to northeast/east Missouri area. After all of this precipitation moves out, precipitation totals are right around a half of an inch.
Headed into tonight winds will start to switch from the south to the west as the low pressure system starts to move into western Iowa. Moisture from this low pressure system will continue to linger around throughout the night into Wednesday. Associated with this low pressure system is a cold front, this will be cooling down temperatures for Wednesday. Conditions will be rather dry for late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The bulk of the humidity will be moving out of central Missouri by 15z Wednesday, but the bulk of vertical motion will be leaving by 21z Tuesday- 00z Wednesday. Another trough will be making its way in on Thursday. Associated with this trough is a jet streak that is located in central Texas and moving it's way up into the Arkansas and Louisiana area. Another low pressure system will be associated with this trough, this low pressure system will start to really form once the jet streak makes its way up into the Arkansas area. This low pressure system is going to cause a wind shift, winds will be switching to the south. This will help drive up moisture giving central Missouri another possibility for rain. MUCAPE values are currently low for this system, but need to be monitored by future forecasters.
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