Monday, March 22, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Monday- 
Mostly Cloudy. High: 66-70



Monday Night- 
Cloudy with showers. Low: 50-54



Tuesday- 
Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. High: 60-64



Tuesday Night-
Overcast with showers. Low: 44-48



Wednesday- 
Partly cloudy, late evening scattered showers. High: 58-62


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Discussion: 

Monday skies will shift from mostly cloudy to overcast as our temperatures meandure in the mid to upper 60’s for the high. The remainder of Monday will be similar to Sunday in terms of warmer temperatures despite increased cloud cover. Our main focus will be the low pressure system moving eastward from Kansas into Missouri Monday evening late. Monday night into Tuesday morning widespread showers will prevail over Missouri. We should see a slight break in the rain after 7 am on Tuesday for a few hours. Then the rain will return bringing with it the possibility for scattered thunderstorms. The main threat with the possible thunderstorms will be flash flooding and strong winds. The rain will eventually stop late Tuesday afternoon, giving rain totals from 0.5 inch to 1inch. By Wednesday the low pressure system moves east, pushing out of Missouri. However, late Wednesday afternoon/early evening we could see the possibility of rain. Temperatures will still top out near 60 because of the southerly flowing winds. 


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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 15 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was generated with the use of the 06z GFS model run. The current GFS model guidance outperforms the latest NAM model output thanks to its handling of the moisture return and timing of the current low pressure system situated southwest of Missouri. The main focus for this forecast period will be showers and the possibility of storms late Tuesday morning. 

 Currently a negatively tilted upper-level shortwave trough resides over New Mexico. This low pressure system will begin to make its way northeast towards central Missouri. Late Monday night, widespread showers will approach Mid-Missouri. These showers will continue through Mid-Missouri aided by a moist southerly flowing LLJ originating from the Gulf of Mexico. Shortly past 7 am, we will see a pause in the rainfall for a few hours. This will allow for an increase in convection over central Missouri which will aid in thunderstorm development as we see the rain begin Tuesday late morning. The 06z GFS model guidance suggests small amounts of CAPE but lacks much in terms of potential lift. This will lead to the possibility of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning. Our main concern with these storms will be strong winds and flash flooding with already decently saturated grounds, totals of rain fall 0.5-1inch. This upper-level shortwave will slowly push northeasterly and the probability of rain will begin to diminish Tuesday night. Early Wednesday morning, the upper-level low will be exiting northeastern Missouri. As the low pushes out, there is a possibility of some scattered light showers briefly due to the wrap-around moisture associated with the exiting shortwave. We return back to a southerly flow near the surface which will allow for our temperatures to top out near 60 Wednesday afternoon. 

The next forecasters main area of concern will be with the approaching upper-level longwave trough moving slowly from our west. With this upper-level low system, we could see the potential for more rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday.   


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