Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Clear. 

Low: 30-34

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34

Thursday - Sunny. Clouds increase through the evening. High: 58-62

 

 

Friday - Cloudy. High: 50-54

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Discussion:

Mid-Missouri has another clear and calm week ahead. Unseasonably warm temperatures will encapsulate most of the week until Friday, when cooler temperatures and cloudy skies return. Wednesday is definitely the day to go outside and enjoy the weather since it will be the warmest day of the week. Thursday, a low pressure system begins moving into the area, bringing increasing clouds as the day goes on. Friday will see overcast skies and cooler temperatures, with the opportunity for light rain throughout the day. However, the majority of the moisture stays south of Mid-Missouri to end the first week of March.

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Forecaster: Clemons, Orr

Issued: 5 PM CST 02 March 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 18Z GFS model was used for this forecast due to its accurate initial conditions. SREF and GEFS spaghetti plots were consulted for temperatures, and GFS soundings were used to help determine cloud cover and possible precipitation.

Zonal flow dominates this forecast period, leading to sunny days and calm weather until Thursday evening. The GFS 250-mb plots of winds shows zonal flow until about 00Z Friday, when a low pressure system begins to move into the area, bringing high amounts of divergence with it. In the 500-mb plot of vorticity and heights, Friday's low becomes more visible. It should be noted that another low comes into view at the start of the forecast, around Tuesday at 18Z. This low remains to the south of the forecast area,  its only impact being changes of winds in Mid-Missouri. The low coming into the area on Thursday also takes a more southerly track, the majority of its influence staying in southwest Missouri.

700-mb plots of humidity suggest that the low will bring enough moisture into the forecast area for cloud cover and maybe a few periods of light rain, but nothing more than that. 850-mb winds help cut off the LLJ, leading to the low rain chances and cloud cover seen on Friday. GFS soundings do not favor the possibility of rainfall either. The 850-mb winds keep a westerly direction until the passage of Thursday's low, contributing to the warmer temperatures Mid-Missouri will see. At the surface, plots of SLP and thickness indicate WAA over Missouri on Wednesday, further supporting the warmer temperatures we will likely see on that day.