Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 36-40

Thursday - Sunny. High: 60-64

 Thursday Night- Increasing clouds. Low: 34-38

 

 Friday - Mostly cloudy with possible light rain. Low:52-56

 

 

Saturday - Mostly Sunny. High: 52-56

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Discussion:

The pleasant weather that Missouri is having is being influenced by a high pressure system located to the south. This will keep the skies sunny and the temperatures above average through Thursday. As the weekend approaches, a low pressure system will make its way to our south, replacing the high pressure system, and bringing cooler temperatures and clouds for Friday. Watch for light rain as the system passes through with very light amounts expected, if any. 

 

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Forecaster: McGuire, Vanderpool

Issued: 05PM CST 03 March 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 18Z GFS was used for this forecast given the initial conditions of temperatures, moisture, and overall flow at each level. GEFS and SREF plumes where used to help determine temperature values and precipitation probabilities along with GFS soundings.

 The 250-mb map indicates that zonal flow is currently in control over much of the US including Missouri. The zonal flow will give way to meridional flow as a upper-level low moves across the Western US and into the region on Friday. The upper-level low track, once it has reached the Central US, looks to be located over Northern Arkansas, while the surface low travels to the south into Texas. The low pressure system as a whole is negatively tilted and is forecasted to weaken as it moves eastward. The low then appears to open up and join the overall flow. 

Looking at the 500-mb map on Friday morning, higher vorticity values are advected into mid-Missouri along with the low that passes to the south. The 700-mb map shows that moisture is advected at the same time, being 12Z-15Z. At the same time there is a small amount of UVM. The previous statements would leave us watching for very light rain to form with very little amounts, if any.  

For Saturday, the low moves out of the region as a large ridge takes place over the western half of the US. The ridge will help bring dry air into the area along with high pressure conditions.

The position of this low pressure system is something to watch as it progresses across the country. This should be focused on by future forecasters.