Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday- Partly cloudy, possibility of thunderstorms. High: 58-62
Monday Night- Cloudy, possibility of showers before midnight. Low: 38-42
Tuesday- Partly sunny. High: 52-56
Tuesday Night- Partly cloudy, possibility of scattered showers. Low: 38-42
Wednesday- Cloudy, possibility of showers and thunderstorms. High: 54-58
Heading into the week, Columbia will experience more possibilities for rain and thunderstorms due to a low pressure system that will be moving into Kansas. Since we will be sitting east of this low pressure system moisture will be building through the day. Headed into this evening these thunderstorms could strengthen and have the possibility to produce some small hail. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50’s, but as Monday night approaches more possibility of rain follows before midnight. Temperatures will drop into the lower 40’s, we will begin to clear out Tuesday as the low pressure system moves out of the area. This will be our next best possibility to see some sun in this forecast period. Due to a low pressure system southwest of Missouri Tuesday night, cloud cover returns with a possibility of scattered showers. As this low pressure system moves closer to southwest Missouri this will increase the chance to see some widespread rain. Later in the day on Wednesday, these storms could strengthen giving us the possibility to see some lightning and hear some rumbles of thunder.
This forecast was generated with the use of the 06 Z NAM. Both the 06Z NAM and GFS handled the current low pressure system to the west well, but the NAM out performed the GFS in terms of temperature and vorticity value trends. The main focus for this forecast will be the widespread rain the next several days and the possibility of storms overnight Monday.
Currently, an upper level cut-off low is located west of Missouri presiding over northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This upper level low will continue to push northeasterly throughout Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. With this passing upper level low, high values of vertical wind shear this afternoon paired with surface heating are forecasted. These two ingredients allow for the possibility of storms to develop in lower CAPE values in the 100-250 range. This could lead to the possibility of some strong thunderstorms overnight. The main two threats associated with these storms will be the possibility of hail and widespread strong winds.
As Tuesday morning approaches, the current upper level trough pushes northeasterly and an upper level ridge develops just off to our west. This feature will allow for a dry, yet cloudy Tuesday. Winds commit out of the west and high cloud cover pair, allowing for our temperatures to stay cooler Tuesday. This ridge pushes east, and the next upper level trough moves from Northern California towards Missouri. This negatively tilted trough first affects Central Missouri on Wednesday morning. Southerly flowing winds paired with this upper level system allows us to see rain move into the area and stay with us throughout the rest of Wednesday. We are expecting to see rainfall totals nearing an inch with these two systems as they make their way through by Wednesday night.
The next forecasters main area of concern will be the negatively tilted trough that continues to move east over Missouri on Wednesday night into Thursday. The timing of the exit of this low pressure feature will determine the total rainfall accumulation and changing temperatures heading off into this week late.
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