Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Spring is in full force here in mid-Missouri with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms ringing in our Wednesday. Currently this morning, we're tracking thunderstorms that have a history of producing hail and gusty conditions along with heavier areas of rainfall. We will likely see a brief break by mid-morning from this rain, but don't get too complacent. We will be expecting another round of possibly strong storms this evening. By tonight, most of the potential for strong storms will leave the area allowing for leftover rain showers and rumbles of thunder to dominate the night as a low pressure system moves through the area. By tomorrow, storm chances will be gone as rain lingers on the back end of this low. In total, we can expect to see 2-3" of widespread rain accumulation by tomorrow evening. Also after this low pressure system moves through the area, we'll see winds our of the north causing cooler temperatures. Friday will finally bring sunshine back into the area with temperatures climbing back into the 50s.
====================================================
This
forecast was assembled using the 06Z run of the NAM and the 12Z HRRR. The HRRR was used for the short term forecast of the remainder of Wednesday as it was the model that most closely reflected the intensity and location of the current storms as well as the location of clearing cloud cover out to our west. The NAM was used to forecast Thursday and Friday as it's current conditions mirrored what is on radar now more so than the GFS guidance. The problem of today's forecast will be the possibility for strong to severe storms for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. It should be noted that the SPC has
Mid-Missouri under a marginal risk in Wednesday's convective outlook.
At the 250-mb level, a jet max is located to our northeast for 12Z Wednesday while an area of low pressure is over the Colorado/Kansas border. This low will move eastward through the forecast period and will cause winds to become southerly by 18Z Thursday.
The 500-mb vorticity plot shows high areas of vorticity at both 15Z Wednesday and 03Z Thursday. Vorticity at this level supports the possibility of severe storm formation aided by the circulation. This upper level vorticity will exit the region by 00Z Friday.
At the 700-mb level, a low pressure system is located over the panhandle region of Oklahoma. This low is aiding in moisture transport as winds are pulling in moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will help support rain chances for most of Wednesday. This low pressure system will move eastward throughout the forecast period until it is over Missouri at 12Z Thursday. On the back end of this low, winds will shift to become northerly, cutting off moisture transport for Friday leading to a lack of cloud cover to close the week.
The
850-mb plot of winds and temperatures reveal more moisture transport ahead of this low pressure system that is currently residing over northwestern Texas. Like we saw at the 700-mb level, southerly winds are bringing moisture into mid-Missouri allowing for cloud cover and rain chances throughout the morning. The low pressure system will move into Missouri at 03Z Thursday, and we can expect moisture level to drop significantly for Thursday overnight into Friday as that low pressure system pushes to our east. Temperatures will also cool down slightly as winds will shift to become northerly.
We've already seen severe storms that produced hail and gusty conditions this morning. This will help with decreasing severe storm chances for this afternoon, but there are still several factors to be considered when looking toward this afternoon and evening's setup. First of all, current IR satellite suggests some cloud clearing to our west which would allow diurnal heating if that clearing continues moving toward the forecast area. This heating would destabilize our atmosphere for our second round of storms, potentially creating more hazardous conditions. 21Z soundings show negative omega rates from the surface to 700-mb with positive omega between 700-mb and 500-mb levels. CAPE values are around 400 J/Kg at this time with saturation near the surface. This all adds to the notion that we could see thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and rainfall for the early afternoon today. Latest soundings from 06Z NAM suggest veering providing WAA, low omega rates, and CAPE values near 700 J/Kg. This suggests thunderstorms with low threats of producing hail, but due to significant dry layers, the system will begin to weaken at 21Z Wednesday. By 03Z Thursday, lower CAPE values are to be found and more lower level saturation which would indicate steady rainfall.
Future forecasters should keep an eye on afternoon clearing and updated sounding to determine the atmosphere's stability for the remainder of today.
No comments:
Post a Comment